The ATP Masters 1000 Miami keeps delivering tricky early-round spots where form really matters. Arnaldi is clearly struggling right now, which gives Shevchenko a good chance despite his own inconsistency. Barrios Vera comes in with confidence from qualifying and could definitely keep things tight against an injury-hit Cazaux. At the same time, Khachanov has the edge in quality and should be able to handle Bautista-Agut if he plays to his level.
ATP Masters 1000 Miami 1/64-Finals
Arnaldi – Shevchenko: 20.03.2026 18:00 CEST
H2H: 2-0
Matteo Arnaldi has lost four of his last five matches. The last match he played was in Indian Wells, where he lost to McDonald in straight sets. He has struggled with his form for the past few months and is currently ranked outside the top 100.
Alexander Shevchenko has lost four of his last five matches. Last week in Phoenix, Shevchenko lost to Quinn in the opening match in three sets. Last season in Miami, the Kazakh failed to qualify for the main draw tournament.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, this will be a 50-50 matchup, but we disagree. Arnaldi is in terrible form and just recently lost to McDonald 0-6, 1-6. On the other hand, Shevchenko also struggled with his form, but he had several solid matches as well. We expect Shevchenko to be a better player.
That being said, Shevchenko winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Alexander Shevchenko winning @1.73 @bet365
Cazaux – Barrios Vera: 20.03.2026 18:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Arthur Cazaux has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Phoenix, Cazaux withdrew from the second-round clash against Basilashvili. This is his debut campaign in the main draw tournament in Miami.
Tomas Barrios Vera has won three of his last five matches. This week in Miami, Barrios Vera qualified for the main draw tournament by winning both qualifying matches in straight sets. In the final qualifying round, he upset Vukic.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Cazaux is the slight favourite in this matchup, but we disagree. He has struggled with the injuries for the past few months. On the other hand, Barrios Vera dominated in the qualifying tournament. We expect a tight match that could go either way.
That being said, Barrios Vera covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Tomas Barrios Vera +2.5 games handicap @1.83 @bet365
Bautista-Agut – Khachanov: 20.03.2026 19:30 CEST
H2H: 7-5
Roberto Bautista-Agut has won three of his last five matches. This week in Miami, the Spaniard defeated Duckworth in two tiebreaks. He saved consecutive set points in the opening set.
Karen Khachanov has lost three of his last five matches. The last match he played was in Indian Wells, where he lost to Fonseca in the opening match in three tight sets. He was the semifinalist here in 2023. Last season in Miami, Khachanov lost to Dimitrov in the third round.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Khachanov is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He is in solid form and enjoys playing in Miami. On the other hand, Bautista-Agut is far away from his best level. We expect Khachanov to dominate and get a comfortable win.
That being said, Khachanov winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Karen Khachanov winning 2-0 @1.91 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
