The ATP Masters 1000 Miami 1/32-finals bring some nice underdog value. Tirante should benefit from already being match-ready, Walton carries strong momentum from qualifying, and Fonseca is in good enough form to make things uncomfortable for Alcaraz and keep it close.
ATP Masters 1000 Miami 1/32-Finals
Royer – Tirante: 20.03.2026 15:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Valentin Royer has lost four of his last five matches. Last week in Cap Cana, Royer lost to Navone in the second round in straight sets. He hopes for a solid result this week to get back to his best form.
Thiago Agustin Tirante has lost three of his last five matches. This week in Miami, Tirante lost against Landaluce in the final qualifying round in three tight sets. However, with several players withdrawing from the tournament, the Argentine entered the main draw as a lucky loser.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, this will be an almost 50-50 matchup, but we disagree. So far this season, Royer has secured only two wins, both against players who are outside their best form. On the other hand, Tirante has already played two matches in Miami and will be ready for this one.
That being said, Tirante winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Thiago Agustin Tirante winning @2.00 @bet365
Walton – Baez: 20.03.2026 18:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Adam Walton has won four of his last five matches. This week in Miami, Walton qualified for the main draw tournament. He defeated Hijikata in the final qualifying round in three sets.
Sebastian Baez has won three of his last five matches. The last match he played was in Indian Wells, where he lost to Medvedev in the third round. Last season in Miami, the Argentine lost to Bublik in the opening round in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Walton is the slight underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. Walton dominated in the qualifying tournament. On the other hand, Baez struggled in Miami in all four appearances so far. We expect Walton to be a better player.
That being said, Walton winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Adam Walton winning @2.10 @bet365
Alcaraz – Fonseca: 21.03.2026 00:00 CEST
H2H: 1-0
Carlos Alcaraz has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Indian Wells, Alcaraz lost to Medvedev in the semifinals in straight sets. He was the champion here in 2022.
Joao Fonseca has won four of his last five matches. This week in Miami, Fonseca defeated Marozsan in three sets. Last season in Miami, the Brazilian lost to de Minaur in the third round in three tight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Fonseca is the heavy underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. He is in solid form and has all the weapons to keep this match close. We expect a high-intensity match that could go either way.
That being said, Fonseca covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Joao Fonseca +4.5 games handicap @2.10 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: David Gonzales-Imagn Images
