ATP Masters 1000 Madrid 1/16-Finals
Tiafoe – Muller: 29.04.2025 11:00 CEST
H2H: 1-0
Frances Tiafoe has lost three of his last five matches. Two weeks ago in Barcelona, Tiafoe lost in three tight sets against Munar in the opening round. This week in Madrid, the American was 7-5, 3-1 up, when Darderi retired due to an injury. He lost in the second round against Cachin last season in Madrid. Tiafoe has never made it past the third round.
Alexandre Muller has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Munich, Muller lost against Zverev in the opening round in straight sets. He has played twice in Madrid and lost each time in the opening qualifying round. However, this week, Muller reached the third round. Goffin retired mid-match in the opening round against him. In the second round, Muller defeated Humbert after spending almost three hours on the court. He was great under pressure in the deciding set, saving the only breakpoint he offered.
Best Bets to Make
Main Bet
According to the bookies, Muller is the slight underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. The Frenchman is in solid form. Tiafoe never had any success on the European clay courts. We expect Muller to keep this match tight.
That being said, Muller covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Alexandre Muller +1.5 games handicap @1.83 @bet365
Extra Bet
If you love to take risks, there is value in Muller winning and over 23 games in the match. We expect a tight match and Muller to emerge as the winner.
That being said, Muller winning the match and over 23 games is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Alexandre Muller winning & 23+ total match games @+290 @FanDuel
Norrie – Diallo: 29.04.2025 Time TBA
H2H: first meeting
Cameron Norrie has won four of his last five matches. This week in Madrid, Norrie defeated Landaluce in three tight sets. He even saved one match point. The Brit defeated Lehecka in three tight sets in the second round after losing the opening set 2-6. Ruud stopped Norrie last season in the third round in Madrid.
Gabriel Diallo has won three of his last five matches. Diallo failed to qualify for the main draw tournament this week in Madrid. However, with several players withdrawing from the tournament, Diallo entered the main draw as a lucky loser. In the opening main draw round, he defeated Bergs in straight sets. Majchrzak put up a big fight in the second round, but Diallo was better. After spending over two hours on the court, the Canadian defeated Majchrzak in three tight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, this will be a 50-50 matchup, but we disagree. Norrie is one of the most experienced players in the draw. He had a tough draw but played his best tennis. His experience will prevail in this match, and we expect him to win.
That being said, Norrie winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Cameron Norrie winning @1.80 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
