ATP Masters 1000 Monte Carlo 1/32-Finals
Bautista-Agut – Nakashima: Time TBA
H2H: 1-0
Roberto Bautista-Agut has lost four of his last five matches. Last week in Bucharest, he lost in the second round against Comesana in three tight sets after spending over two hours on the court. Last season in Monte Carlo, the Spaniard was stopped in the second round against Hurkacz.
Brandon Nakashima has won four of his last five matches. He currently plays in Houston in the semifinals. This will be his debut campaign in Monte Carlo. Being an American, Nakashima spent most of his career playing on hard courts.
According to the bookies, Bautista-Agut is the slight underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. The Spaniard is a clay-court specialist with much experience playing in Monte Carlo. On the other hand, Nakashima will have to travel from Houston to Monte Carlo and have almost no rest time. We expect Bautista-Agut to win this match easily.
That being said, Bautista-Agut winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Roberto Bautista-Agut winning @2.00 @bet365
Davidovich Fokina – Shelton: Time TBA
H2H: 1-0
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has lost three of his last five matches. His last match was in Miami, where he lost against Tiafoe in the second round. His last clay court match was last season at the French Open. Last season in Monte Carlo, the Spaniard lost in the opening round against Korda in straight sets.
Ben Shelton has won three of his last five matches. His last match was in Miami, where Wong upset him in the opening round. Shelton played here only once, in 2023, when he lost in the opening round to Dimitrov.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Davidovich Fokina is the slight favorite in this matchup, and we agree. Besides winning the title in Houston, Shelton never succeeded on clay. Clay courts in Europe are way slower than in the States, and we expect Davidovich Fokina to profit from those conditions.
That being said, Davidovich Fokina winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina winning @1.62 @bet365
Fognini – Cerundolo: Time TBA
H2H: first meeting
Fabio Fognini has lost four of his last five matches. Last week in Marrakech, Fognini lost against Collignon in the opening round in straight sets. He was granted a wild card this week in Monte Carlo. His last appearance here was in 2022 when Tsitsipas demolished him in the second round.
Francisco Cerundolo has won three of his last five matches. His last match was in Miami, where he surprisingly reached the quarterfinals. Last season in Monte Carlo, Cerundolo lost in the second round to Khachanov in three tight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Cerundolo is the favorite in this matchup, and we agree. Fognini is totally out of form, and we expect him to struggle in this match as well. He played most of this season at the Challenger Tour level, where he also underperformed.
That being said, Cerundolo covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Francisco Cerundolo -5.5 @-108 @FanDuel
Main Photo Credit: Danielle Parhizkaran-USA TODAY Sports
