ATP Masters 1000 Miami final
Mensik – Djokovic: 30.03.2025 20:00 CEST
H2H: 0-1
Jakub Mensik has won six straight matches. This week in Miami, Mensik upset Draper in the second round. Machac retired from his 1/8-Final match against Mensik. Fils had no answer for Mensik’s game in the quarterfinals. Mensik won in straight sets without any problems. In the semifinals, the Czech upset Fritz in three tight sets after spending almost three hours on the court. He was great under pressure in the deciding set.
Novak Djokovic has won five straight matches. This week in Miami, Djokovic won all five matches in straight sets. In the 1/8-Finals, the Serb dominated against Musetti in straight sets, losing only four games. Korda also had no answer for Serb’s game in the quarterfinals. He was 5-2 up in the second set, but Djokovic turned it around and won in straight sets. Djokovic lost his serve at the beginning of the set in the semifinals. After that, he completely dominated against Dimitrov, winning 6-2 6-3.
Best Bets to Make
Main Bet
According to the bookies, Djokovic is the favorite in this matchup, and we agree. He is hungry for success and aims to get his 100th ATP career title. The Serb was dominant throughout this week, not losing a single set. On the other hand, Mensik is in great form, but he struggled in the semifinals against Fritz. That match will leave him fatigued for the final match. We expect Djokovic to dominate and win once again in straight sets.
That being said, Djokovic winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Novak Djokovic winning 2-0 @1.73 @bet365
Second Bet
Mensik served incredibly well this week in Miami. He served 25 aces in the semifinal match against Fritz. Mensik also offered no breakpoints in the third-round match against Safiullin. He offered only 2.5 breakpoints on average in the past two matches. Looking at their only head-to-head meeting, Djokovic defeated Mensik in three sets with one tiebreak. Djokovic will win in straight sets, but we expect at least one tiebreak.
At least one tiebreak in a match is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: over 0.5 tiebreaks @2.10 @bet365
Third Bet
As we previously mentioned, Mensik served great this week in Miami. He will be fatigued, but we expect him to deliver his best tennis in the opening set. We believe the first set will be very tight, without many break opportunities. If Mensik serves first, over 9.5 games in the first set is a huge value bet. He is serving too well to get broken twice in one set. If Djokovic serves well, Mensik needs to hold his serve four times.
That said, over 9.5 games in the first set is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: set 1 over 9.5 games @-158 @FanDuel
Main Photo Credit: Danielle Parhizkaran-USA TODAY Sports
