My previous bets were a bit of a mixed bag. While the over 2.5 on Alexandra Eala vs Jessica Pegula predictably hit, Eala couldn’t close out Pegula in the third set and eventually succumbed to the savvy veteran. Eala had a tremendous third set, even pushing it to 3-3 but Pegula’s ability to rally combined with Eala’s 59 unforced errors and those small margins were enough to swing the match Pegula’s way. Now Pegula faces the toughest test of this or any tournament with the world’s no. 1 player in Aryna Sabalenka. Will our bets pay off? Did we pick the right bets? Let us know in the comments below.
WTA Miami Finals
Sabalenka – Pegula: Time 12:00
H2H: 6-2
Aryna Sabalenka hasn’t faced much by way of a challenge in Miami. She’s played five matches for a total of 5 hours and 43 minutes on court. That’s roughly 1 hour and 8.5 minutes per match. Then there’s Jessica Pegula, who has spent 9 (!!!!) hours and 45 minutes playing the same number of matches, and her last match went 2 hours and 26 minutes. The match with Emma Raducanu that happened before Eala went 2 hours and 25 minutes. Fatigue is likely going to play a role in this match, and that’s before we factor in Sabalenka’s general dominance over Pegula, anyhow.
Best Bet to Make
You can make money off Pegula if you believe she can pull off the upset. The books have Sabalenka as a favorite, and I agree with that fully. Should you wish to bet on Pegula pulling off the upset because Sabalenka is only 3-2 against Pegula on hardcourts, there’s ample opportunity to double your money. At +260, there’s value to be had on a Pegula upset. Just don’t count on it happening.
That being said, Pegula winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Pegula winning @+260 @FanDuel
Sabalenka – Pegula: Time 12:00
H2H: 6-2
When it comes to delicious prop bets, I usually try to locate something that has a reasonable chance of coming true, coupled with the value they are offering alongside the possibilities. Of all the prop bets that seem possible, the one I think is most realistic would feature Sabalenka winning every set 6-0 6-1 or 6-2. Why do I like this one so much? Look at how much tennis Pegula has played compared to Sabalenka. Then couple that with Sabalenka’s general dominance over Pegula and the fact that she’s also playing the best tennis of anyone in the WTA at present. Why wouldn’t this outcome happen? But even if you think they’re going to go 6-3 or 6-4, you can STILL get the same odds, just on a different bet.
Best Bet to Make
The books are offering the Sabalenka +650 on either win every set 6-0, 61, or 6-2 — you get all three in the bet, it’s a package — or they’re also offering Sabalenka +650 to win every set 6-3 or 6-4, again you get these in a package as one bet. So, that’s a range of outcomes that all seem not only likely, but probable given the amount of tennis one has played versus the other.
That being said, Sabalenka to win every set 6-0 6-1 or 6-2 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Over 2.5 sets @+650 @DraftKings
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images
