ATP Masters 1000 Miami 1/32-Finals
Fonseca – Humbert: 22.03.2025 Time TBA
H2H: 0-1
Joao Fonseca has won six straight matches. Last week in Phoenix, Fonseca won the Challenger title, winning against Bublik in the final in straight sets. It is his debut campaign in Miami. Fonseca defeated Tien in three tight sets in the opening main draw round.
Ugo Humbert has won three of his last five matches. His last match was in Indian Wells, where he lost to Rune in three tight sets in the third round. Last season in Miami, Humbert lost in the third round against Koepfer in three tight sets. He has never made it past the third round.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, this will be a 50-50 matchup, but we disagree. Humbert is a more experienced and better player at the Masters 1000 level. Fonseca struggled in the opening match against Tien. We believe Humbert’s experience will prevail in this matchup.
That being said, Humbert winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Ugo Humbert winning @1.80 @bet365
Fritz – Sonego: 22.03.2025 Time TBA
H2H: 5-2
Taylor Fritz has won three of his last five matches. His last match was in Indian Wells, where he lost in straight sets against Draper in the 1/8-Finals. Fritz was the quarterfinalist in Miami in 2023. Last season, Seyboth Wild upset him in the second round.
Lorenzo Sonego has lost three of his last five matches. This is his sixth appearance in Miami. In the opening round, Sonego won against Navone in straight sets. He has never made it past the fourth round. Last season, Sonego lost in the opening round against Evans in three tight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Fritz is the big favorite in this matchup, but we disagree. He struggled with his form for the last couple of weeks. On the other hand, Sonego has a strong serve and loves to play on the biggest stage. We expect Sonego to keep this match tight.
That being said, Sonego covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Lorenzo Sonego +3.5 games handicap @2.00 @bet365
Hurkacz – Darderi: 22.03.2025 Time TBA
H2H: first meeting
Hubert Hurkacz has lost three of his last five matches. His last match was in Indian Wells, where he lost against de Minaur in the third round. In 2021, Hurkacz won the title in Miami. Last season, Dimitrov won against him in the fourth round.
Luciano Darderi has lost three of his last five matches. This week in Miami, Darderi won against Martinez in straight sets. Last season in Miami, Darderi lost against Shapovalov in the opening round.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Hurkacz is the favorite in this matchup, and we agree. Darderi is a solid clay-court player who has never succeeded on hard courts. On the other hand, Hurkacz has already won the title in Miami once and is a way better hard-court player than Darderi. We expect him to dominate from the start until the end.
That being said, Hurkacz covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Hubert Hurkacz -4.5 games handicap @2.00 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Jonathan Hui/The Desert Sun/USAToday Sports
