The first round of the Australian Open kicks off on Day 1 with 16 men’s matches scheduled for Sunday. There should be some incredible action Down Under, and–as always–we here at LastWordOnTennis share our thoughts on every singles match. We split the day’s 16 matches between four articles. The other articles feature Alexander Zverev vs Lucas Pouille, Casper Ruud vs Jaume Munar and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juncheng Shang. Predicting this set of matches are Ateet Shrivastava, Ismael Gonzalez and Yesh Ginsburg. Who do you think will advance?
Australian Open Day 1 Men’s Predictions
Hugo Gaston vs Omar Jasika
Ateet: Hugo Gaston doesn’t have a good record on hard courts and the Australian Open is his worst Slam when it comes to win percentage. However, he faces wild card Omar Jasika, who has just one tour-level win to his name. Jasika will get the crowd support but I am not sure if that would be enough to beat Gaston.
Prediction: Gaston in 4
Ismael: Gaston has only won one match in his last four tournaments, but he is a crafty player whose variety can be challenging for lower-ranked opponents. Jasika has a modest record at the Challenger level, and was forced to retire against Hijikata a few days ago. Although local wildcards often elevate their level, this is a favorable draw for Gaston, and he should be able to capitalize.
Prediction: Gaston in 4
Yesh: Jasika looks to be rapidly finding his legs at lower levels, but facing a player like Gaston at this stage is probably a bridge too far. Maybe the crowd can help him, but it’s definitely a step more than he’s used to.
Prediction: Gaston in 4
Arthur Fils vs Otto Virtanen
Ateet: Arthur Fils made a winning start to his Australian Open career last year and will look to go much further this time around. Otto Virtanen is finally in the main draw after failing to qualify in the last two years. Virtanen didn’t play any lead-up tournaments but he poses a threat on this surface. But I can’t see him winning the match.
Prediction: Fils in 4
Ismael: Virtanen is not the type of player who needs a lot of rhythm, but it was an odd choice to skip all preparation tournaments. Fils played Hong Kong, losing to the eventual champion, Muller. The pair faced off at an indoor Challenger in 2023, and Arthur was able to prevail under ideal conditions for Virtanen. He should manage to do so again, although Otto is a big server and it could be tight.
Prediction: Fils in 4
Yesh: Fils has been somewhat quiet in recent months, which is surprising given his trajectory. No time like the present to remind the world that he’s a future elite, though.
Prediction: Fils in 3
Jaime Faria vs Pavel Kotov
Ateet: 21-year-old Jaime Faria played three brilliant matches in the qualifying rounds to make his first-ever Grand Slam main draw. It will be a huge moment for the Portuguese player. Pavel Kotov is more experienced but has made an awful start to the season. If Kotov does not play to his full potential, Faria could win this.
Prediction: Faria in 5
Ismael: It has been a while since Kotov displayed his best tennis: he has lost eight of his last nine. However, he showed flashes against Duckworth. Faria looked impressive in qualifying, but he remains untested at this level, and will be making his Grand Slam debut. A slow start from Kotov could make things tricky, but his experience should ultimately prove too much for the Portuguese youngster.
Prediction: Kotov in 5
Yesh: Pavel Kotov is often hit or miss, but he has far more potential on this court than his opponent. Will that matter? Who knows. That’s what makes this fun.
Prediction: Kotov in 4
Kei Nishikori vs Thiago Monteiro
Ateet: Kei Nishikori will play the Australian Open for the first time since 2021 and he is in great form. Nishikori reached the final in Hong Kong last week and if he can play at a high level in Australia, he can cause a lot of trouble for others. However, his fitness across five sets is uncertain but he shouldn’t have many problems in defeating Thiago Monteiro, who has just one match win at this Slam.
Prediction: Nishikori in 4
Ismael: Nishikori showed some vintage tennis in Hong Kong up until leading 6-2 in the final. While failing to capture the title was undoubtedly disappointing, it was an outstanding week. Monteiro is a seasoned veteran, but also a pure clay-court specialist. Before this year’s qualifying, the Brazilian had a 5-16 record on hard courts since 2023. There is little reason to believe he can outplay Nishikori.
Prediction: Nishikori in 4
Yesh: Kei Nishikori looks in good form again, for now. Injuries have hampered his career and created inconsistency, so it’s hard to trust him. Still, if he plays anything like in the warmups, he should win this one.
Prediction: Nishikori in 3
Main Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea – USA TODAY Sports
