The first round of the Australian Open kicks off on Day 1 with 16 men’s matches scheduled for Sunday. There should be some incredible action Down Under, and–as always–we here at LastWordOnTennis share our thoughts on every singles match. We split the day’s 16 matches between four articles. The other articles feature Kei Nishikori vs Thiago Monteiro, Alexander Zverev vs Lucas Pouille and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juncheng Shang. Predicting this set of matches are Ateet Shrivastava, Ismael Gonzalez and Yesh Ginsburg. Who do you think will advance?
Australian Open Day 1 Men’s Predictions
Tomas Machac vs Sumit Nagal
Ateet: Tomas Machac will look to build on his impressive run at the United Cup and reach the later stages. Sumit Nagal did well to qualify for the main draw in Auckland and played a good match against Alex Michelsen. However, Machac has more weapons and a higher upside and should win this comfortably.
Prediction: Machac in 3
Ismael: Machac unexpectedly retired while leading against Taylor Fritz at the United Cup, but apparently he was cramping, which is not serious. If he is healthy, he is an amazing player. He dominated Cobolli and defeated Hurkacz at this same tournament, pushing Ruud to a deciding set. Nagal has lost eight out of his last ten, defeating only Mannarino and Klintcharov. He is not at the level Machac will bring to the court.
Prediction: Machac in 3
Yesh: Is Machac healthy? That’s the big question. Because if he is, his recent form says that he might be one of the dark horses for a deep run this tournament. He really flipped a switch in 2024. Will it continue?
Prediction: Machac in 4
Adam Walton vs Quentin Halys
Ateet: The 25-year-old Australian, Adam Walton will be looking for his first match win at his home Slam and Quentin Halys stands in his way. Halys has a big serve which will be effective on these courts but his fitness is questionable after he retired early on in his qualifying match last week.
Prediction: Halys in 4
Ismael: Walton is steadily improving, securing wins over ATP players like Hijikata and Lajovic. He likely lacks the firepower and aggressiveness needed to be a top 50, but he is very solid. Halys is quite the opposite, highly talented and powerful, but inconsistent. While Halys is probably a better player at his peak, he retired against Bradshaw, and Walton will have the crowd’s support, so the Australian should be able to outlast him.
Prediction: Walton in 5
Yesh: Both of these players are potential solid Top 30 stalwarts eventually. And yet, I’m not quite sure either will ever get there. But they’re still capable of great tennis and should provide us with a fun match. I trust Halys a tiny bit more at this stage.
Prediction: Halys in 5
Luciano Darderi vs Pedro Martinez
Ateet: Luciano Darderi has lots of talent and he has shown it on multiple occasions in 2024. But he hasn’t quite figured out how to play his best tennis on hard courts. Pedro Martinez is a tough customer and I expect this match to be very close.
Prediction: Martinez in 5
Ismael: A great chance for two clay-oriented players. Darderi erupted onto the ATP tour last year, winning Cordoba and breaking into the top 50. But hard-courts are a different story; he has only won two of his last sixteen matches. While Martinez is not particularly strong on the surface either, he is at least winning some matches. It could truly go either way but the Spaniard gets the nod in this 44th-vs-43rd ranked clay-courters battle.
Prediction: Martinez in 5
Yesh: Both of these are solid enough players. Darderi certainly has more potential upside, though Martinez is often more consistent. Over a best-of-five, I think Darderi will work his way through Martinez’s baseline play.
Prediction: Darderi in 4
Casper Ruud vs Jaume Munar
Ateet: Casper Ruud looked in great touch at the United Cup and defeated some top players. The run at the ATP Finals seems to have reignited his form, and he will be a force to be reckoned with in Melbourne. Munar will fight for every point and had some good wins last week, but he doesn’t have the weapons to trouble the Norwegian.
Prediction: Ruud in 4
Ismael: Munar has had a surprisingly great start to 2025, falling a tie-break short of reaching the final in Hong Kong and defeating Davidovich, Borges and Musetti. However, it is hard to believe he is suddenly a great hard-court player. Furthermore, Ruud has been great the last couple months, reaching the semifinals at the ATP finals and defeating Machac and Hurkacz at the United Cup. He should have no trouble in this one.
Prediction: Ruud in 3
Yesh: This is a tricky first-round match. Munar can frustrate opponents, and his counterpunching game is a perfect contrast to Ruud’s slightly-more-aggressive style. Ultimately Ruud does everything better, but this could be a lot closer than people expect.
Prediction: Ruud in 5
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey – USA TODAY Sports
