The first round of the Australian Open kicks off on Day 1 with 16 men’s matches scheduled for Sunday. There should be some incredible action Down Under, and–as always–we here at LastWordOnTennis share our thoughts on every singles match. We split the day’s 16 matches between four articles. The other articles feature Kei Nishikori vs Thiago Monteiro, Casper Ruud vs Jaume Munar and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juncheng Shang. Predicting this set of matches are Ateet Shrivastava, Ismael Gonzalez and Yesh Ginsburg. Who do you think will advance?
Australian Open Day 1 Men’s Predictions
Reilly Opelka vs Gauthier Onclin
Ateet: Reilly Opelka has started the year in great fashion, reaching the final in Brisbane and beating Djokovic en route. His retirement from the final does cause some concerns but if he is close to his full fitness, he will win this match. Gauthier Onclin came through some tough players in the qualifiers but Opelka’s serve would be too much for him to handle.
Prediction: Opelka in 3
Ismael: Which version of Opelka will show up? The version that reached the final in Adelaide would win this comfortably, but after his retirement against Lehecka there is no way to know. Onclin fought three wars in qualifying, defeating quality players, and will be ready to capitalize on any weakness. However, even if not at full fitness, Opelka should have enough power to get through this match.
Prediction: Opelka in 4
Yesh: Opelka, assuming he’s healthy, looks to be in decent rhythm. Onclin has never seen a server that can move like Opelka before. This won’t be fun for him.
Prediction: Opelka in 3
Aleksandar Vukic vs Damir Dzumhur
Ateet: Vukic had a good 2024 season and will look to make some impact at the Australian Open. Damir Dzumhur won a lot of titles and matches at the Challenger Tour in 2024 but most of them were on clay. This should be a good encounter between these two but I like Vukic better on hard courts.
Prediction: Vukic in 5
Ismael: This is a great chance for both. Despite a 1-2 record in 2025, Vukic has looked good, comfortably defeating Goffin and pushing Giron to a deciding set. Dzumhur, back in the top 100 for the first time since 2019, has struggled a bit, losing to McCabe and Kopriva. Vukic is playing better tennis and will have the crowd’s support. The Bosnian can’t be counted out, but Aleksandar is the rightful favorite.
Prediction: Vukic in 4
Yesh: Vukic is currently better on form, though if Dzumhur can find some magic that he used to sometimes display almost a decade ago, he would probably be favored. Alas, we haven’t seen magic like that in a long time, and likely never will again.
Prediction: Vukic in 4
Ugo Humbert vs Matteo Gigante
Ateet: Ugo Humbert ended the 2024 season brilliantly and reaching the top 10 would be one of his goals this year. A deep run in Melbourne will help the cause. Humbert is always dangerous on hard courts and Matteo Gigante doesn’t have the upside currently to beat the Frenchman.
Prediction: Humbert in 4
Ismael: Gigante won two hard court Challengers in 2024 and easily qualified without dropping a set, but this is a completely different level of competition. Humbert had an amazing season last year, claiming titles in Dubai and Marseille and reaching the final in Paris. For Gigante, winning a set would be a commendable achievement, but anything beyond that seems unlikely in this matchup.
Prediction: Humbert in 3
Yesh: Humbert has so much potential. It’s often untapped, but he has more than enough talent for this match as long as he stays focused.
Prediction: Humbert in 4
Alexander Zverev vs Lucas Pouille
Ateet: Zverev had some biceps issue during the United Cup which forced him to withdraw from the quarterfinals but he looked good in practice and exhibition matches and should be good to go. Lucas Pouille at his best can trouble Zverev but he hasn’t played a lot of tennis recently on the ATP Tour.
Prediction: Zverev in 4
Ismael: Pouille was awarded the French Federation’s wildcard. He has not been particularly impressive in 2025, losing to Basavareddy in straight sets and needing a deciding tie-break to defeat Kubler. Even if he had played better, it would be difficult to see him posing any threat to Zverev, whose only loss in his last ten matches was a deciding tie-break defeat to Fritz. The German is simply too good.
Prediction: Zverev in 3
Yesh: Zverev looks in strong form and will likely challenge in the later rounds in Melbourne. Pouille is a good warm-up but shouldn’t be a serious thread.
Prediction: Zverev in 3
Main Photo Credit: Robert Deutsch – Imagn Images
