The 2023 Japan Open Tennis Championships might have huge implications for the last spots remaining in the ATP Finals field. Taylor Fritz, Hubert Hurkacz, and Casper Ruud have gone out, so now it’s Tommy Paul and Alex de Minaur standing in front of a big chance to clinch the 500 points and improve their Turin chances. Who do you think will make the final four at ATP Tokyo?
ATP Tokyo Quarterfinal Predictions
Tommy Paul vs Ben Shelton
Head-to-head: 1-1
Third match of the season between these two as they split the previous two meetings at the two hard-court Slams. Tommy Paul enjoyed this matchup on a speedy court in Australia, Ben Shelton loved how the heavy balls sat up for him in New York. This is basically a form-of-the-day type of deal and it’s hard to guess who will benefit this time. The thing about Paul is that he’s really good at counter-punching inside the court and not giving up ground. If he can take time away like that, maybe a slight advantage is on his side.
Prediction: Paul in 3
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marcos Giron
Head-to-head: Auger-Aliassime 3-0
Felix Auger-Aliassime really needs wins right now to cover for his stellar finish to the 2022 campaign. Getting two (well, even three) matches under his belt is already huge for him here. He used to dominate the Marcos Giron matchup, although they’ve actually never played on a hard court. The American is known for often producing wins you wouldn’t really expect from him. Auger-Aliassime has a lot more upside though and should take this opportunity at ATP Tokyo
Prediction: Auger-Aliassime in 2
Shintaro Mochizuki vs Alexei Popyrin
Head-to-head: First meeting
Shintaro Mochizuki scored an unbelievable win against Taylor Fritz, especially considering he lost the opening set with a bagel and was 2-5 down in the third. He played inspired tennis in front of the home ATP Tokyo crowd, but following that up won’t be easy. His lightweight build often doesn’t allow him to show his great feel for the ball and touch. Alexei Popyrin on a good serving day should be able to capitalize on that. Expect a bit of a letdown from yesterday’s hero.
Prediction: Popyrin in 2
Alex de Minaur vs Aslan Karatsev
Head-to-head: 1-1
Aslan Karatsev is simply an opponent that can never be underestimated with an extremely imposing playstyle and a very high peak level on his day. But will the Russian bring it for his match against Alex de Minaur? For what it’s worth, he has already defeated the World No. 13 this year, albeit in conditions that were more favorable to him. But the Australian’s playstyle is a little inviting for big-hitters and as long as Karatsev can control his groundstrokes, he will have his chances here.
Prediction: Karatsev in 3
Main Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin Oncea – USA TODAY Sports
