At 36 years of age, with 19 Grand Slam titles to his name and a hefty bank account, Roger Federer’s desire to achieve more is one of sports’ most captivating scripts that keep on giving.
The most staggering thing about his illustrious tennis career is that he keeps getting better, at least health wise. At 36, he is still one of the fittest and agile tennis players on tour. While it is understandable for a man of his success to have a less busy schedule during the year (having proclaimed he works “part-time” nowadays), his craftiness and guile rather than a defensive baseline game has enabled him to extend his career to new heights. And fresh from winning the Hopman Cup for Team Switzerland in Perth along with partner Belinda Bencic, the Swiss Maestro is in fine spirits as he looks to defend his crown. Here are five reasons why Federer will walk away with the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup yet again.
- He will be the man to beat
It’s not often for the last five years that Roger Federer could walk in to a Major tournament being billed as the favorite especially given the form that the likes of Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal were in during that period. Federer maintained a considerable level of consistency by reaching Wimbledon final in 2014 and 2015, and the US Open final in 2015 before succumbing to the Serb who at the time was playing an unmatched level of tennis.
But it’s astounding how 12 months can mean a lot in tennis. The tables have been reversed in quick fire time. Federer spent six months convalescing from a career-threatening knee injury before he returned in 2017 and won the Australian Open and Wimbledon before ending the year as world no.2. The Swiss will put his title defence on the line, and he is priced as the odds on favorite to retain the title again. The narrative is that, Roger Federer at his very best will be hard to stop. Ironically, Federer is more primed and in better shape than when he won the tournament last year. That is something the Swiss will relish.
- His main rivals are struggling for fitness and injury issues
On paper, Federer’s closest rivals at the moment include names such as Alexander Zverev, Dominic Thiem, and Grigor Dimitrov. But in broader terms Federer’s main rivals are players who have consistently been at the business end of Major tournaments. They were all in a race against the clock to overcome injury issues in time to play at the Australian Open, while Federer looked to be the healthiest member. Novak Djokovic having withdrawn from the Mubadala Exhibition tournament and the Qatar ExxonMobil Open led to a major doubt that he participate at the first Grand Slam of the year due to his elbow, which he said is still in pai,. until his recent post on Twitter announcing his arrival in Australia dampened fears of any sort of late withdrawal. Historically, Djokovic has always produced his best tennis in Melbourne, but this will be a massive test for the Serb whose only bit of play has been an exhibition match against Dominic Thiem at the Kooyong Classic and the TieBreak Tens event.
Andy Murray is officially out of the tournament. That only furthers the chances of Federer retaining his Australian Open title. Murray is a five-time Australian Open finalist and his only Grand slam win over Federer was at Australian Open in 2013. Murray had been bothered by a hip injury for quite a long time, and on his return to courts in Abu Dhabi, he looked stiff and erratic in one-set defeat to Roberto Bautista-Agut. In a most recent emotional post, Murray explained how he was torn between having to undergo surgery to repair his hip or seek further rehabilitation. The Brit decided to go under the knife and he could be set for a longer spell on the sidelines. Rafael Nadal’s schedule has been patchy. Prior to this week, the Spaniard had not struck a ball since a round robin defeat at the Nitto ATP Finals to David Goffin. He immediately withdrew from the tournament following that defeat due to a knee injury which also forced him to forfeit his participation at the Brisbane international. With seedings of 1 and 2 between Nadal and Federer this year that means the earliest they could meet is in the final. And for the last five matches between the pair, Federer has had Nadal’s number.
- The Record
It is perhaps a norm now that in almost every tournament, match or win, Federer is breaking or rewriting the history books. At this year’s Australian Open, the Swiss will be all guns blazing for Grand Slam number 20, and his sixth Australian Open tying him with another great in the game in the shape of Novak Djokovic who holds the current record for the most Australian Open titles in the open era. If ever Federer would look for more inspiration this is it.
- The Draw
In fairness, Federer has perhaps the most laborious path towards retaining the Australian Open title. And once more it will require more than multiple strenuous displays to go all the way. Barring any upset of epic proportions in the first round where Federer opens up against Slovenia’s Aljaz Bedene, be could have to contend with Raonic, Del Potro, and Djokovic in his side of the draw before potentially facing Nadal in the final. However, projected meetings do not usually come to fruition particularly in the Majors where seeds fall fast and significant upsets being recorded.
Federer, having gone through what was labeled “the draw of hell” last year, where he not only shocked himself but also the entire tennis world by beating three top ten players en route to winning the title should be in a strong position to beat a Raonic, who is still hurting from match fitness. Del Potro recently finished runner-up in Auckland, and it is asking a lot from him to get as far as the quarters given that this will be the first time he returns to Melbourne in four years. The unpredictability about Djokovic’s game will be interesting, especially given Djokovic’s restructured service motion and his sentiments reiterating that his suspect elbow is still not at 100%. At this point, this may be a projected semi-final too far for the Serb.
- Next Gen Stars yet to step up
The inaugural NextGen ATP Finals in Milan was a great event to unearth tennis’ next big thing. Alexander Zverev, who elected not participate due to his explosive 2017 season that earned him a place in the Nitto ATP finals instead, has surprisingly not made it past the fourth round in a Grand Slam.
It is perhaps unfair to be too critical about NextGen stars who can consider themselves “unlucky” to be competing in the golden age of tennis with three of the greatest players to ever pick up a racquet in the mix. Djokovic won his first Grand Slam at the age of 20, Nadal at 19, and Federer at 22. Zverev is arguably the only player aged 20 or below that has made major strides to combat the elite in the game but is still looking to break the fourth round hiatus. He could meet Djokovic in round four. That puts the likes of Borna Coric, Karen Khachanov, Hyeon Chung (winner of the inaugural NextGen title) and Andrey Rublev with minimal chances of staging any significant upset. Federer will least wary of drawing any of those names at later rounds.
