The ATP Firenze Open in Florence has gotten really interesting with the ouster of tournament favorite Matteo Berrettini in the second round. Lorenzo Musetti is the lone Italian left in the draw, and could be a threat to win the whole thing, if the hometown fans can help boost him through. But he may have to get through the mighty Felix Auger-Aliassime, if the latter can survive a rising American in Brandon Nakashima. (Speaking of Americans, the quarterfinals feature three Americans, as the U.S. presence is strong this year with nine players inside the top 50.) Who will lift the Florence trophy for the first time in over 25 years? We offer our predictions.
ATP Florence Quarterfinal Predictions
Lorenzo Musetti vs Mackenzie McDonald
Head-to-head: first meeting
This is a much closer match than the rankings would suggest, which are separated by 50 places. Musetti strongly prefers clay, and McDonald—as a typical American player—is competent on hard courts. They have an almost identical win percentage on the surface, an almost identical record this year, and an almost identical hard court record this year. McDonald has been playing a little better of late, especially with a first round win over Jenson Brooksby. Musetti’s straight sets win last round was over a clay court specialist in Bernabe Zapata Miralles, and he otherwise hasn’t played great since winning Hamburg a few months ago. This is too close to call, but I’ll give McDonald the slight edge.
Prediction: McDonald in 3
J.J. Wolf vs Alexander Bublik
Head-to-head: first meeting
This is a good matchup. Both players tend to be inconsistent, but each is playing well at the moment, and especially Bublik. Bublik’s hard court record this year is well above his normal .500, and his level recently has been high enough to include a win over Cameron Norrie in Davis Cup. Wolf has not been quite as good, but just got a solid win over Maxime Cressy, and he has a high level that he can sometimes reach. The question for Bublik will be whether he keeps his head in the game. But he seems to be enjoying himself at the moment, and I expect he’ll rise to the challenge of Wolf’s energetic attack, although the match could hinge on whether he serves well.
Prediction: Bublik in 3
Mikael Ymer vs Roberto Carballes Baena
Head-to-head: Ymer 1-0
Carballes Baena is coming off a fantastic second round win, not just upsetting heavy favorite Matteo Berrettini, but doing it on the Italian’s home soil. Nothing presaged this victory either, as Carballes Baena attended three Challengers prior to Florence, and has merely a 33% winning percentage on hard courts. But Ymer’s hard court percentage is at least 20 points higher, both in his career and this season specifically, and he has been playing well recently.
Incredibly, while hovering just around 100 in the rankings, the Swede recently vanquished both Diego Schwartzman and Jannik Sinner in Davis Cup play. He seems to have taken a fair amount of confidence from a semifinals appearance in Washington over the summer. Under normal circumstances I would expect Ymer to take this fairly handily, but the question here is whether the Berrettini upset will put serious wind in Carballes Baena’s sails and propel him to a win.
Prediction: Ymer in 3
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima
Head-to-head: first meeting
Nakashima has been playing well, but he runs into a big wall here in Auger-Aliassime. The Canadian has recent wins over both Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz between Laver Cup and Davis Cup. Nakashima has continued to improve slowly, and logged his first-ever title in San Diego, and it would be a huge boost to his confidence to follow that up here with a Top 10 win, but Auger-Aliassime likely feels that this tournament is his to lose now that Matteo Berrettini is out. It would be only the Canadian’s second title, and would surely mean a lot for someone who has had high expectations sitting on his shoulders for a couple years now, and I would expect him to fight strongly for this one. Nakashima shouldn’t be a pushover, though.
Prediction: Auger-Aliassime in 3
Main Photo from Getty.
