The round of 16 at the ATP Estoril Open concludes with four matches on Thursday on what should be an exciting day of tennis for the fans in Portugal and those watching around the world. The top seed will be amongst those in action and we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for every match on the slate, as well as the action at ATP Kitzbuhel. But who will reach the quarterfinals?
ATP Estoril Day 4 Predictions
Jaime Faria vs Gonzalo Bueno
Head-to-head: first meeting
It was a big moment for Jaime Faria, who secured his maiden match win at his home tournament. He eased past Botic van de Zandschulp 6-3 6-4 for his 28th win on clay this season in what was perhaps an upset on paper but not such a surprise given their respective form. Gonzalo Bueno, for his part, broke new ground by winning his first main draw match on the ATP Tour. The Peruvian pulled off a near-impossible comeback from 1-5 down in the third set against Tiago Pereira. Bueno capitalized on Pereira’s lapses, but Faria is unlikely to be as charitable. Expect the Portuguese #2 to control this match from start to finish – he is good enough to win it comfortably.
Prediction: Faria in 2
Pedro Martinez vs Luciano Darderi
Head-to-head: Darderi 3-1 Martinez
Luciano Darderi continues to elevate his clay-court game and he recently made the final of the Bastad Open, losing to Andrey Rublev. On his last trip to Estoril two seasons ago, Pedro Martinez defeated Daniel Altmaier, Bautista Agut, Richard Gasquet and Casper Ruud on his way to the final (lost to Hubert Hurkacz in two tight sets). That’s a clear indication of how well he can play when he’s up against it on this surface. That said, Darderi is selective with his shot-making and usually attacks when the opportunity is there. His game is far more polished. Provided the Italian doesn’t experience any significant physical dips, he’ll grind out a hard-fought victory.
Prediction: Darderi in 3
Luca Van Assche vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Head-to-head: Van Assche 1-0 Carreno Busta
Luca Van Assche is 2-2 since his title win at the Parma Challenger a month ago. But one of those wins was in the first round of the ATP Estoril Open, where he defeated Frederico Ferreira Silva in three sets. Pablo Carreno Busta has reached two finals at this tournament and won the title in 2017. The Spaniard may not be quite as explosive as he was in his prime, nor does he cover the court as effieciently, but he consistently plays with excellent depth through the middle of the court and his groundstrokes remain extremely solid. He’s won a lot of matches with that approach (294 to be exact), and it could well pay off in this match.
Prediction: Carreno Busta in 3
Andrey Rublev vs Timofey Skatov
Head-to-head: first meeting
This is turning out to be a fruitful (late) summer for Andrey Rublev, who quickly shook off the disappointment of losing in the first round of Wimbledon by winning his first title of the season in Bastad. After a lacklustre qualifying defeat, Timofey Skatov earned a spot in the main draw as a lucky loser. And he raised his level to upset Jesper de Jong for his first Tour-level win since 2024. But this should be a massive jump in quality for the Kazakh. Rublev’s heavier forehand was destructive in the Bastad final, and the Russian is poised to inflict more damage in his opening match at ATP Estoril.
Prediction: Rublev in 2
Main photo credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
