On paper, this should be the highest quality matchup of the Red Group at the ATP Finals. However, their match at the Rolex Paris Masters was lop-sided and disappointing as a spectacle. Can Daniil Medvedev prove himself superior once again?
Nitto ATP Finals Day 3 Prediction
Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev
Head-to-head: 5-5
The two met just ten days ago in Paris. Coming into the match, it seemed like Alexander Zverev would be a slight favorite. The German held a 28-2 win/loss record since the Olympics and despite losing the big match against Novak Djokovic at the US Open, there were some serious arguments for him being the best player in the world in the last three or four months. However, on Saturday in Paris, we witnessed a complete dismantling of Zverev’s game.
Medvedev’s return took over the match as the Russian was able to break his opponent four times. On the way to that semifinal, Zverev seemed to have finally found the right balance between aggression and control, hitting his forehand possibly the best in his career. But it didn’t matter against Medvedev as the Russian tracked down everything to leave the Tokyo Olympics champion without reliable ways to win points. Therefore, the conditions in Turin could in fact help Zverev, at least contrary to what we saw in Paris. His first serve will bring more free points and it should be easier to finish off a short rally with a big groundstroke.
But will that be enough? After all, Zverev once led this head-to-head series 4-0, emerging onto the scene a fair bit earlier than the Russian. Medvedev had his big breakthrough in the summer of 2019 and has since won 5 of his next 6 meetings with the one year younger rival. Could it be that for the past two years, the 25-year-old has simply been the better tennis player?
A loss like the one Zverev had to endure in Paris will also leave him mentally scarred. For someone so ambitious, this was no doubt a humiliating defeat. Getting over it won’t come easy and it might not allow him to relax, settle down and be comfortable here. It likely won’t be this straightforward again, but the same player as in Paris should come out on top.
Prediction: Medvedev in 2
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