The ATP Estoril tournament continues with the Round of 16 in Portugal. The tournament used to be a spring event, but it is now a summer tour stop. The player Portuguese fans are rooting for the most at this tournament is Nuno Borges, a seeded player who lost to Jannik Sinner in the second round of Wimbledon and has shown at times he can compete against the best players on the ATP Tour. The 2026 ATP Estoril event is one Borges would really love to win, given it is his home-nation tournament. Borges is part of the Wednesday card, so his match will certainly get some attention. LWOS has our best bets for three matches. Post your best bets and thoughts in the comments.
ATP Estoril
Nuno Borges – Roman Andres Burruchaga: 9:30 EST
H2H: 0-0
Nuno Borges will try to handle the pressure of being the crowd favorite at the 2026 ATP Estoril tournament. His opponent, Roman Andres Burruchaga, is no slouch. Burruchaga made the semifinals of the ATP Umag event last week before losing to the eventual champion, Daniel Merida Aguilar. Burruchaga is a quality dirtballer, posting a 24-13 record on clay thus far in 2026. This does not look like an easy match on paper for Borges, who was solid but not overwhelmingly imposing earlier this week in a 6-3 6-3 win over an opponent, Orlando Luz, who was ranked outside the top 1,000 on the ATP Tour in singles.
Best Bet to Make
Welcome to our best bet section. You’re going to get a collection of bets to consider, also a confidence level which should guide how much you should invest in this match.
Parlay options: Borges moneyline at 1.42 at @betfair, Burruchaga plus 1.5 sets at 1.74 at @1xbet
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 4 – don’t bet more than half a unit on this match.
This match could go in any direction. Burruchaga, with his 24 clay match victories this year, can play well on clay. It would be an upset, but not a gigantic one, if Burruchaga were to win this match. He’s good on this surface, and Borges did not dominate an opponent (Orlando Luz) who is a million times worse than Burruchaga. You can certainly take Borges moneyline as a parlay piece, but your main bet should probably lean to Burruchaga on a set or game spread. Overall, don’t bet too much, given that this match feels volatile.
That being said, betting on Burruchaga +4.5 games is the best bet you can make.
Value bet/ the best odds: Burruchaga +4.5 games at 1.63 @unibet
Hugo Gaston – Titouan Droguet: 7:00 EST
H2H: 2-0
We told you to take Hugo Gaston over Damir Dzumhur in this ATP Estoril tournament, and that piece of advice looked like gold. Gaston won easily to advance to this round. Gaston is 10-11 on clay in 2026, while his opponent in this match, Titouan Droguet, is 15-8 on clay this year. Droguet reached the quarterfinals of Umag before losing to the eventual tournament winner, Daniel Merida Aguilar. These players are ranked very close to each other, with Gaston at No. 109 and Droguet at No. 114. Droguet is the sportsbooks’ favorite given his superior clay match record this year.
Best Bet to Make
Parlay options: Droguet moneyline at 1.56 at @betfair, Gaston +1.5 sets at 1.57 @1xbet
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 1 – you shouldn’t bet on this match.
This match feels like a toss-up, even though Droguet is priced as a very clear favorite. Gaston did not have to work hard to beat Dzumhur, so he should be fresh for this match. Droguet having five more clay match wins this year is not a massive differential. It’s something, and it’s worth noting, but it’s not necessarily enough to swing a bet or the overall evaluation of this match. You can put two competing parlays in place to potentially hit the middle, but you really shouldn’t bet big on this match. If you have to, go with over 2.5 sets.
That being said, betting on over 2.5 sets is the best bet you can make
Value bet/ the best odds: over 2.5 sets @2.31 @betsson
Alejandro Tabilo – Tiago Torres: 12:00 EST
H2H: 0-0
There isn’t a ton to say about this match, with Torres being ranked outside the ATP top 400, roughly 400 spots lower than Tabilo. Tabilo has 26 clay match wins this year, compared to just four for Torres. Tabilo is a gigantic favorite.
Best Bet to Make
Parlay options: Tabilo winning 2:0 at 1.44 at @10bet, Torres +7.5 games at 1.20 @betsson
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 1 – You should not bet on this match.
This is one of those matches where there’s not a ton of value to be found anywhere. A player can win a match comfortably and yet not cover a spread. Trying to bet on a blowout always carries a certain degree of risk in tennis, because a player could win 6-3 6-3 and have a very easy time of it. Yet, that’s only six games. Expecting a player to win 6-2 6-1 needs to be based on total confidence. Anything less and you’re chasing bad value. If you absolutely insist on betting on this match, find a smaller game spread for Tabilo.
That being said, betting on Tabilo -5.5 games is the best bet you can make.
Value bet/ the best odds: Tabilo -5.5 games @1.95 @10bet
Main Photo Credit: Carlos Rodrigues-Getty Images
