The ATP Gstaad final has arrived. It’s the championship match for this post-Wimbledon clay tennis tournament. In most cases, the players who play this week on European red clay did not do well at Wimbledon. This is true for the finalists in this ATP 250 event. Gstaad provided an ideal lift for both Stefanos Tsitsipas and Raphael Collignon. Tsitsipas lost in the second round at the All-England Club, while Collignon lost in the first round. Since Wimbledon is a two-week tournament, losing in the first four days of the event meant a week and a half of rest for both guys. They were able to get to Switzerland without having to hurry or operate on a compressed schedule. They were able to prepare in an organized way. It shows. Now one will lift a trophy. LWOS has our best bet for the final matches. Post your best bets and thoughts in the comments.
ATP Gstaad
Stefanos Tsitsipas – Raphael Collignon: 5:30 EST
H2H: 0-0
The ATP Gstaad final is a compelling one. Stefanos Tsitsipas, a regular top-10 presence for years, has fallen from grace. He was outside the ATP top 80 entering this tournament. His run to the final has pushed him up to No. 65, and if he wins this championship, he will rise all the way to No. 51, which will really help him with direct entry to important tournaments for the rest of 2026. Tsitsipas’s favorite surface is clay. It’s the surface which helps his topspin forehand and generally rewards his game. It has showed in Gstaad, with Tsitsipas having more of a comfort zone than on grass or hardcourts this year. Because Tsitsipas has played in Major finals before (including on clay at Roland-Garros), a Gstaad final shouldn’t be emotionally overwhelming or hard to handle for him. It’s an important match, but not nearly the most important of Tsitsipas’s career.
Raphael Collignon loves playing on clay. The young, rising star is in the ATP top 40 and can crack the top 35 if he wins the ATP Gstaad title. Collignon is 17-3 in 20 clay matches this year. He trailed Juan Manuel Cerundolo in Saturday’s semifinal but scrambled to rally from a set-and-break deficit to win in three sets. Will that three-set final, complete with a bold and dramatic comeback, give him confidence for this final, or will that long and draining match leave him spent for the final? It’s a really interesting question and probably the one which will determine how the match goes.
Best Bet to Make
Welcome to our best bet section. You’re going to get a collection of bets to consider, also a confidence level which should guide how much you should invest in this match.
Parlay options: Tsitsipas moneyline at 1.80 at @betway, Collignon plus 1.5 sets at 1.42 at @unibet, Collignon +2.5 games at 1.62 @unibet
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 4 – bet no more than half a unit on this match if you are going to bet on it.
It is true that Collignon is 17-3 on clay this year, but that was a tough semifinal he won, and now he has to come right back on Sunday, play a final, and handle the emotions associated with the moment. It will be a tough challenge for him. However, Tsitsipas needed three sets in his semifinal as well. It wasn’t as tough as Collignon’s match, but it wasn’t especially easy, either. Tsitsipas, though, has a lot of experience playing in tour finals and generally big matches. Though he has not been a top-10-quality player and has fallen off the pace compared to past years, he still knows how to show up in situations such as this one.
This feels like a really close match. Who wins is hard to choose. When that is the situation, over 2.5 sets makes sense, and since both players needed three sets in the semifinals, that doesn’t hurt. However, we’re not going to express great confidence in this bet, since two players winning tight three-setters in the semis suggests volatility and unpredictability, which is not a framework tailor-made for making a big bet.
That being said, betting on over 2.5 sets is the best bet you can make.
Value bet/ the best odds: over 2.5 sets at 2.20 @betway
Main Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
