The ATP Bastad final is here. The championship match for this post-Wimbledon clay 250 event is set, and it’s a battle of the top two seeds on Sunday in Sweden. It’s an attractive final four in Sweden. This Bastad tournament turned out to be a top-heavy event, with the top three seeds making the semifinals. Andrey Rublev beat third seed Alejandro Tabilo in one semifinal. Second seed Luciano Darderi moved through his semifinal to set up the 1-versus-2 final. What’s even more fascinating about seeing a Rublev-Darderi final in Bastad is that the two players are the top two seeds for the coming tournament at Estoril in Portugal. It will be interesting to see if both players play Estoril, given how much effort and energy they have poured out this week in Sweden. Of this next point, there is no doubt: Both will go all-out for a trophy. LWOS has our best bet for the match. Post your best bets and thoughts in the comments.
ATP Bastad
Andrey Rublev – Luciano Darderi: 8:00 EST
H2H: 1-0
The ATP Bastad final is as good as tournament organizers could have hoped for: No. 1 versus No. 2. Andrey Rublev built momentum this past week in Sweden by crushing Sebastian Baez in the quarterfinals performance. He needed to be efficient in that match on Friday, because in his next match on Saturday, he was pushed into a third set by Alejandro Tabilo. Winning the Friday match quickly gave him enough stamina for Saturday. Now he’s in the final on Sunday, and it will be interesting to see how physically fresh he is.
The same can be said for Rublev’s opponent in the ATP Bastad final. Second-seeded Luciano Darderi needed three sets to turn back clay specialist Adolfo Daniel Vallejo. This was a bruising, close and contentious match. Darderi lost a marathon second set in a 13-11 tiebreaker, but he regrouped in the third set to move into this final. If the questions about Rublev’s stamina are legitimate (and they are), Darderi faces an even tougher physical turnaround from his Saturday semifinal. This could work to Rublev’s advantage, but another view of this situation is that both men’s three-setters fundamentally cancel each other out.
Best Bet to Make
Welcome to our best bet section. You’re going to get a collection of bets to consider, also a confidence level which should guide how much you should invest in this match.
Parlay options: Rublev moneyline at 1.77 at @pinnacle, Darderi plus 1.5 sets at 1.45 at @interwetten
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 4 – You should not bet more than half a unit on this match.
Two good players, two top seeds, two men tired from three-setters on Saturday in the semifinals. This feels like a really even match, so you should have parlays and hedge options in place on both sides. Darderi did have the tougher semifinal match if we are going to compare the two, but Rublev is not some bastion of ultimate reliability in ATP Tour championship matches or other high-pressure moments. Darderi is a top-25 player just as Rublev is. Neither man stands out as a moneyline lock, and that’s why you shouldn’t bet a ton of money on this match. When it’s hard to come up with a clear winner, over 2.5 sets is always there as the fallback plan. That’s probably the best way to go with this match, though Rublev moneyline could be your chosen bet if you think Darderi’s long slog against Vallejo depleted the Italian and will leave him spent against his Russian foe.
That being said, betting on over 2.5 sets is the best bet you can make.
Value bet/ the best odds: over 2.5 sets at 2.30 @betway
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
