WTA Wimbledon third-round play starts on Friday. The women’s tournament at the All-England Club now gets even more interesting, with seeded players facing each other. The players competing on the weekend have a better chance of going deep into the second week and making a run at the championship. This has been viewed as a tournament many different players can win. Some of the top players in the field have not been at their best and will be tested in this round. The feel of the tournament and the shape of the bracket could be very different after this third round runs its course. LWOS has our best bet for three matches. Post your best bets and thoughts in the comments.
WTA Wimbledon
Bencic – Kalinskaya: 6:00 EST
H2H: 4-1
Belinda Bencic made the WTA Wimbledon semifinal round last year and has established herself as a quality grass tennis player. She is trying to back up 2025 with a strong WTA Wimbledon tournament in 2026. She has moved very smoothly through the first two rounds this week, raising hopes that she can defend her semifinal points and possibly get to a first major final. Her opponent, Anna Kalinskaya, fought off a very spirited effort from Diane Parry to reach the third round. Kalinskaya is not a top-10 player, but she is a top-25 player. She has won some tough major-tournament matches this year and has reason to believe that if this match is close and complicated, she can pull through.
Best Bet to Make
Kalinskaya is a legitimately tough opponent. She is a seeded player at this WTA Wimbledon tournament for a reason. However, Bencic, who came into this tournament with some slight concerns about her overall fitness, has looked very strong. You can be impressed with Kalinskaya and still favor Bencic, just because the Swiss has demonstrated better form and overall consistency. What you can do here as a betting strategy is take Kalinskaya plus 4.5 or 5.5 games as a parlay piece, but then favor Bencic with your main standalone wager. Bencic to win in straight sets is a possible play, but we’re a little hesitant to do that because Kalinskaya could easily take one set. Bencic minus 3.5 games offers the ability to cash a winning ticket regardless of whether Kalinskaya wins a set. Bencic winning 6-3, 4-6, 6-3 would win this bet, whereas Bencic in straight sets would not. It’s a very hard match to bet on, but that’s where we ultimately land.
That being said, betting on Bencic -3.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Bencic -3.5 games @1.83 @1xbet
Alexandrova – Jovic: Time 7:30 EST
H2H: 1-0
Ekaterina Alexandrova was not doing much of anything on clay this year. She came to grass and instantly started losing less. She wasn’t dominant or overwhelming, but she was clearly a lot better than she was in April and May. Getting away from clay dramatically helped her game. Now she is in the third round of this WTA Wimbledon tournament with a chance to get into the second week. Her opponent in the third round is Iva Jovic, who has looked very good in her first two matches and has been installed as the betting market favorite here.
Best Bet to Make
The betting strategy here is to fold Jovic moneyline into a parlay. Jovic is a clear betting market favorite but not a gigantic one, so getting her price into a parlay leg is not bad at all. However, for the standalone bet, it seems the markets are giving a lot of weight to Jovic such that you can get immense value on Alexandrova. We have seen a number of instances this past week at Wimbledon in which a moneyline favorite got a little too much respect, to the point that betting on the underdog to win at least one set carried a good price and then cashed a winning ticket. We’re naturally going to do that again here by betting on Alexandrova to win at least one set. You could sprinkle a small amount on the over 2.5 sets bet, but the main play is Alexandrova on the set spread.
That being said, betting on Alexandrova +1.5 sets is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Alexandrova +1.5 sets @1.70 @10bet
Pegula – Bouzas Maneiro: Time 8:00 EST
H2H: 1-0
It’s the battle of the Jessicas. One will win. Pegula is a top-five seed and a main contender for this WTA Wimbledon championship. She wobbled a little in her first-round match and then needed a tiebreak win in her second-round match. She has not been at her very best, but she knows that she has not needed her best stuff to get past her first few opponents. She hopes to raise her game in the third round and build momentum for the road ahead next week. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro has scored very impressive wins over seeded opponent Anastasia Potapova and the talented but erratic Dayana Yastremska. She does not figure to be a pushover here.
Best Bet to Make
Pegula is likely to win, but Pegula in straight sets doesn’t offer enough of a price on its own for us to recommend that as our best bet. You can fold Pegula to win in straight sets into a parlay and make that a part of your betting strategy. For value, and for our standalone wager, we have to look at the game spread. The 5.5 game spread is evenly priced. We are going to lean to Bouzas Maneiro given that Pegula has won a 7-5 or 7-6 set in her first two WTA Wimbledon matches. Pegula’s opponents covered the spread in those matches. Bouzas Maneiro is playing good tennis and can probably keep this match close.
That being said, betting on Bouzas Maneiro +5.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Bouzas Maneiro +5.5 games @1.92 @1xbet
Sabalenka – Ostapenko: Time 10:30 EST
H2H: 3-1
Aryna Sabalenka has traditionally dominated her rivalry with Jelena Ostapenko, but Ostapenko’s straight-set win last year in the final of WTA Stuttgart injected new life into it. Now the two will meet at a combined 9-2 on grass at Wimbledon. Both ladies reached the semifinals of the tournaments they played right before Wimbledon, Sabalenka in Berlin and Ostapenko in Eastbourne. The only thing separating these two in their last ten games is a single game. Sabalenka is 8-2 while Ostapenko is 7-3. Even still, it won’t be any surprise who will be the favorite in England.
Best Bet to Make
As the World No. 1, Sabalenka finds herself not only the top seed in the tournament, but also the favorite in this match. The average odds are 1.27-3.86 in favor of the Belarusian. That said, you can find Sabalenka as low as 1.25 and Ostapenko as high as 4.14 on some books. I see no reason to question the wisdom of the bookmakers here. I know that Ostapenko managed to pip a win against Sabalenka in their last match, but Sabalenka is 35-5 overall this year and a back-to-back-to-back semifinalist here at Wimbledon. Is this the year the World No. 1 finally wins the most important tournament in tennis?
That being said, betting on Sabalenka winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Sabalenka winning 2:0 @1.83 @10bet
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
