Day 5 at Wimbledon will see eight women’s third-round matches on Friday. As always, our team here at LastWordOnTennis will share our thoughts on all of the matches. We split the eight matches between two articles, with the other article featuring Aryna Sabalenka vs Jelena Ostapenko. Predicting these matches are Amanda Bergman, Andreas Pelekis, and Tope Oke. Who do you think will advance?
Wimbledon Day 5 Predictions
Karolina Muchova vs Mananchaya Sawangkaew
Amanda:
It’s been a memorable Wimbledon run for Mananchaya Sawangkaew, but while Karolina Muchova shouldn’t underestimate her by any means, Muchova is still the heavy favorite. On a six-match win streak and yet to drop a set at Wimbledon, Muchova is playing at the level her top-10 seeding would suggest and shouldn’t have much trouble in this match.
Prediction: Muchova in 2
Andreas:
At No. 6 in the WTA Race, Muchova could use a big Grand Slam result. She snapped a five-match losing streak at Wimbledon earlier in the week, and has the steadier game compared to Sawangkaew. The Thai No. 2 is on a dream run at this tournament, playing consistent tennis, though Muchova’s variety could complicate her style of play. The Czech should reach the second week.
Prediction: Muchova in 2
Tope:
Karolina Muchova rolls into this one with a body that’s finally cooperating, back inside the Top 10 and looking every bit the danger seed. Mananchaya Sawangkaew has ridden her luck and a gutsy run–an injury retirement, then a stunning upset of Alicia Parks to reach a Slam third round few saw coming. But the gulf in class is real: if Muchova brings even half her best tennis, the world No. 164’s fairytale run hits a wall in straight sets.
Prediction: Muchova in 2
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Iva Jovic
Amanda:
Iva Jovic is proving herself to be a strong grass-court player, and a dominant win over Tatjana Maria in the second round only emphasized that. She lost the only match she’s played against Ekaterina Alexandrova, but that was when she was extremely fresh on the WTA Tour and she’s playing at a much better level now. Alexandrova isn’t known for posting results at Slams, and it’s hard to see her getting the upset here.
Prediction: Jovic in 2
Andreas:
This should be a fascinating matchup, with Alexandrova returning to her best form, and Jovic streamrolling through the main draw. The American had the arguably more impressive second round win over grass-court specialist Tatjana Maria, cruising 6-1 6-2. Alexandrova is a bit more prone to errors, but her flat groundstrokes can beat any opponent. Jovic has had the steadier season, and she’s been more rock solid on the big points.
Prediction: Jovic in 3
Tope:
Iva Jovic looks unstoppable right now, and after brushing aside a dangerous Tatjana Maria there’s no reason to think Ekaterina Alexandrova stops the momentum. The Russian holds a 1-0 head-to-head edge from a three-set US Open battle two years ago, but that feels like a different lifetime given how Jovic is moving on grass. Expect the 14th seed to keep rolling into the next round.
Prediction: Jovic in 2
Naomi Osaka vs Daria Kasatkina
Amanda:
Naomi Osaka leads the head-to-head 3-0 against Daria Kasatkina, which is no surprise considering the matchup of styles. Kasatkina struggles against pure power hitters, and Osaka can overcome Kasatkina’s consistency with her rate of winners. In the past Kasatkina has been more comfortable on grass and could utilize that advantage, but Osaka is finding her stride on the surface and can keep her perfect record against Kasatkina going.
Prediction: Osaka in 3
Andreas:
Grass has never been Osaka’s best surface, but she’s turned a corner in 2026. Osaka has regularly been able to tree off Kasatkina’s slower paced groundstrokes and serve, and I can see the No. 14 seed controlling most of the points. Kasatkina’s defense can create some challenges, and Osaka will have to be consistent in the long rallies.
Prediction: Osaka in 2
Tope:
Coco Gauff vs Claire Liu
Amanda:
Claire Liu is an underrated grass courter and is on a good run, but Coco Gauff seems to have found her stride on grass and has been serving very well at this tournament. Gauff leads the head-to-head 2-0 against Liu, and while Liu could grab a set Gauff is playing confident and solid enough tennis to get to the next round.
Prediction: Gauff in 3
Andreas:
Gauff survived quite the scare against Solana Sierra, clawing back from 5-3 in the third set to reach this stage. That win might alleviate some pressure, and I can see Gauff playing more freely. Liu has looked sharp after qualifying for the main draw, but Gauff has more weapons in this matchup.
Prediction: Gauff in 2
Tope:
Coco Gauff needed every ounce of grit to escape Sorana Cîrstea, surviving a wild 6-3 3-6 7-6(10-7) battle after looking dangerously close to another early Wimbledon exit. Now the seventh seed turns to fellow American Claire Liu, a qualifier who’s rewritten the script to reach round three. History says this one’s straightforward, Liu has fallen in straight sets both times these two have met, and the smart money says Gauff makes it three from three though it won’t be easy
Prediction: Gauff in 3
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
