Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula begin their grass-court campaigns at the WTA Berlin Open. Five matches are scheduled on Day 3, with newly crowned Queen’s champion Donna Vekic set to play her first-round match on Wednesday. Who will advance?
WTA Berlin Day 3 Predictions
Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova
Head-to-head: Mertens 1-0 Bartunkova
Mertens relinquished the title in Den Bosch in disappointing fashion. The Belgian lost in straight sets to Elena-Gabriela Ruse. But she quickly bounced back with a solid win over the big-hitting Liudmila Samsonova. She lost the first set 6-1 but dropped just three games in the next two sets. Bartunkova entered the main draw in Berlin with little pressure and the young Czech knocked out French Open semifinalist Diana Shnaider in the opening round. She hammered 9 aces and converted 7 of 16 break points in the match. Mertens ended Bartunkova’s brilliant Australian Open run back in January, but this should be much closer. The Czech is far more settled on grass right now (5 wins in her last 7).
Prediction: Mertens in 3
Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala
Head-to-head: Eala 1-0 Vekic
Can Donna Vekic go back-to-back on grass? The Croatian won the WTA 500 tournament at Queen’s as a lucky loser, fending off Emma Raducanu in the final and ending a three-year title wait. The title win takes Vekic’s ranking as high as 33rd and could guarantee a seeding spot at Wimbledon. Although Vekic dropped one set in her seven matches this past week, she appeared noticeably heavier in her movement in the second set of the final and wasn’t getting quite the same pop on her serve or first strike forehand. And it is hard to imagine she will be playing at peak fitness level in Berlin. That could create an opening for Eala, who has the fresher legs in this matchup.
Prediction: Eala in 2
Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova
Head-to-head: Sabalenka 4-4 Alexandrova
This should be an intriguing second-round match with the head-to-head evenly poised at four-all. They have also split their two meetings on the grass. So this is far from a foregone conclusion for the top-seeded Sabalenka. Alexandrova is a genuine grass-court threat with a flat, penetrating ball that stays low and is capable of finding winners from any part of the court. That said, Sabalenka’s serve becomes even more valuable on grass and I expect the Belarusian’s superior arsenal to take over should this match go the distance.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 3
Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova
Head-to-head: Pegula 5-1 Siniakova
Pegula carries the unwanted record of being the highest-seeded player to lose in the first round of this year’s French Open. It was a seismic upset when she lost to Kimberly Birrell in Paris. But the American has every reason to fancy her chances of going deep in Berlin. She has won a grass-court title in each of the last two seasons. Siniakova will be a difficult first test for the World No. 4, but if she settles into her baseline patterns early, I expect her to extend her excellent record against the Czech.
Prediction: Pegula in 2
Coco Gauff vs Paula Badosa
Head-to-head: Badosa 4-3 Gauff
After a disappointing early exit at the French Open, Gauff will play her first match of the grass-court swing with little to defend in the next month. Last year, she did not win a match on grass. It was a forgettable moment for the American, but it happened in the aftermath of her French Open title win. Gauff’s talent is undeniable and it is only a matter of time before she eventually figures out grass the way other elite players have. This transition from clay to grass has rarely been straightforward, and I think Badosa, who produced a confident display in taking down Suzan Lamens, possesses the ball-striking quality to take advantage of any uncertainty.
Prediction: Badosa in 3
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
