The Rouen tournament moves into the final with a matchup no one probably predicted. Veronika Podrez, a 19-year-old making her WTA Tour debut, has advanced all the way to the championship match. She could win a tour title in her very first event. Podrez has created an all-Ukraine final against Marta Kostyuk, the No. 1 seed. Let’s look at the final in France at the end of a surprising and dramatic week of tennis:
WTA Rouen
Kostyuk-Podrez: Time 9:30
H2H: 0-0
Veronika Podrez made the final in an unexpected way. No. 2 seed Sorana Cirstea pulled out of the tournament before the start of Saturday’s semifinal with a leg injury. Cirstea was going to be a very solid favorite to win that match and create a final between the two top seeds in the tournament, but Podrez instead gets to play for a trophy. Podrez has played and beaten good players at this event. She isn’t beating players outside the top 100.
Podrez beat top-45 players Elisabetta Cocciaretto and Katie Boulter to get to the semifinals, so it’s not as though she had an easy draw to get here. She earned her way. Sloane Stephens, whom Podrez also defeated this week, is not a top-50 player but has obvious elite credentials from her past. There isn’t a single player Podrez defeated in Rouen who didn’t have significant professional achievements. It’s been quite a week for the 19-year-old in her first time on the tour.
Marta Kostyuk struggled earlier in the tournament. She trailed Ann Li for much of the quarterfinals but rallied from multiple deficits to win the match. Once Kostyuk got past No. 5 Li, she relaxed and played better in her next match. Kostyuk rolled against Tatjana Maria in Saturday’s semifinal match. That was the only one played due to the Cirstea pullout against Podrez, losing only three games in a blowout victory. Kostyuk, as the top seed in this tournament, would have been expected to beat anyone she played in the final except, possibly, Cirstea. With a fellow Ukrainian and a teenager on the other side of the net, Kostyuk has to feel comfortable about this final.
Best Bet to Make
Kostyuk just played a very clean match. However, Podrez is in the final without having played a match on Saturday. She will be physically ready to play and, due to not playing on Saturday, can devote even more time to preparation for the final and scouting out her fellow Ukrainian opponent. The markets expect a Kostyuk blowout. While Kostyuk is extremely likely to win the match, Podrez is playing confidently enough that she won’t get blown off the court. The value is with Podrez, even though Kostyuk is and should be the overwhelming favorite to lift the trophy.
That being said, Podrez +6.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Podrez +6.5 games @1.73 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
