Last season, when Iga Swiatek won Wimbledon, it wasn’t exactly expected. She was seeded eighth, hadn’t been past the quarterfinals before, and was in a title drought. But, a close look at a run to the final of her grass warmup indicated that her level on the surface was there.
This year, Swiatek played that same grass warmup and lost her opening match. And with all eyes on her at Wimbledon like they never have been before, pressure is mounting fast, and right now Swiatek doesn’t have a rhythm on grass to rely on.
A look at Swiatek’s history at Wimbledon indicates just how important grass-court preparation is. In the years Swiatek played no grass warmups and went straight from the French Open to Wimbledon (2022 and 2024), she suffered upset losses in the third round. Her worst Wimbledon result after playing a warmup tournament is a first-round loss, but that was back in 2019, before Swiatek became the top player she’s known as today. Otherwise, when playing a grass warmup, Swiatek has made the fourth round or better at Wimbledon.
But it isn’t just playing on grass that influences her results, it’s winning. In 2021, Swiatek won only one match at her grass warmup in Eastbourne, but it translated to a fourth-round run at Wimbledon which culminated in a loss to two-time Wimbledon finalist Ons Jabeur. In 2023, Swiatek made the semifinals of Bad Homburg, notching three wins, and went on to make the Wimbledon quarterfinals for the first time in her career. And, most prominently, in 2025 Swiatek made the Bad Homburg final, winning three matches along the way and two against top seeds, and won Wimbledon two weeks later.
Throughout her career, there has been a direct correlation between Swiatek’s success in her grass warmup and her performance at Wimbledon. If the pattern holds, Swiatek could be in trouble this year.
Iga Swiatek needs grass form
In her opening match in Bad Homburg, Swiatek was unable to overcome a resurgent Emma Navarro, who won the match in three sets to level the head-to-head with Swiatek at 2-2. After dropping the first set, Swiatek won the second in dominant fashion with four games in a row to cap it off, but completely lost her momentum in the third set. Navarro went up an early break, and Swiatek couldn’t capitalize on her immediate chances to break back. Navarro did well to fend off the break points to consolidate, and while Swiatek settled into a rhythm on her serve, she didn’t find that quality on return for the rest of the match.
Swiatek left the court facing Wimbledon with no grass wins under her belt.
That is the risk of playing only Bad Homburg before Wimbledon: it was her only chance to get match play on grass before the third Grand Slam of the year. And considering how Swiatek has done in the past without some wins on grass heading into Wimbledon, her title defense is in jeopardy.
The reason behind the direct relationship between grass warmup results and Wimbledon results is experience and rhythm. Grass is a tricky surface for plenty of reasons, one of which being that it’s difficult to get reps in before Wimbledon. The other natural surface, clay, has seven weeks of preparation before its Grand Slam, while grass has just three. And Iga Swiatek, who decided to play only one tournament, will have to find her rhythm quickly on the surface and do so at what could be her most important tournament of the year.
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
