The ATP Masters 1000 Madrid Round of 16 on April 28 features a mix of dominant favourites and potential value spots. Tomas Martin Etcheverry could keep things competitive against an in-form but possibly fatigued Arthur Fils, while Jannik Sinner’s incredible winning streak makes him a strong favourite. Meanwhile, Lorenzo Musetti’s clay-court quality gives him the edge in a balanced clash against Jiri Lehecka.
ATP Masters 1000 Madrid 1/8-Finals
Etcheverry – Fils: 28.04.2026 11:00 CEST
H2H: 1-0
Tomas Martin Etcheverry has won three of his last five matches. This week in Madrid, the Argentine won the opening match against Ofner in straight sets. He offered no breakpoints. In the second round, he turned the match around against Prizmic, winning in three tight sets.
Arthur Fils has won seven straight matches. Last week in Barcelona, Fils won the title, defeating Rublev in the final in straight sets. This week in Madrid, the Frenchman won the opening match against Buse in three tight sets after playing for three hours. In the third round, Fils defeated Nava in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Etcheverry is the underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. He played well against Prizmic in the second and third sets, especially on his serve. On the other hand, Fils played many tough matches over the past two weeks. We expect Etcheverry to keep this match close.
That being said, Etcheverry covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Tomas Martin Etcheverry +3.5 games handicap @1.83 @bet365
Sinner – Norrie: 28.04.2026 11:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Jannik Sinner has won nineteen straight matches. The Italian has won three consecutive Masters 1000 titles in Indian Wells, Miami and Monte Carlo. Sinner defeated Bonzi and Moller in the opening rounds this week in Madrid.
Cameron Norrie has won four of his last five matches. This week in Madrid, the Brit won the opening match against Machac in three tight sets after playing for three hours. In the third round, Norrie outlasted Tirante in two tight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Sinner is the clear favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He is in great form and a way better clay-court player than Norrie. We expect a one-sided match.
That being said, Sinner covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Jannik Sinner -6.5 games handicap @2.00 @bet365
Lehecka – Musetti: 28.04.2026 12:30 CEST
H2H: 2-1
Jiri Lehecka has won four of his last five matches. This week in Madrid, Lehecka won the opening round match against Tabilo in three tight sets. In the third round, Lehecka demolished Michelsen in straight sets.
Lorenzo Musetti has won four of his last five matches. This week in Madrid, the Italian defeated Hurkacz and Griekspoor in the opening rounds in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Musetti is the slight favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He is a top 10 player, mostly because of his clay-court results. We expect him to dominate the rallies and win.
That being said, Musetti winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Lorenzo Musetti winning @1.62 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-Imagn Images
