First-round action at the ATP Hangzhou will conclude on Friday. Five matches are on the schedule. Sebastian Korda will mark his return from injury in his first tournament since retiring at the US Open. Who will reach the next round?
ATP Hangzhou Day 3 Predictions
Rinky Hijikata vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Head-to-head: first meeting
There is a huge ranking gap between Hijikata and Ugo Carabelli, but expect the surface to be the biggest neutralizer. Hijikata is outside the Top 100 after a run of two wins from his last eight matches before this tournament. Ugo Carabelli sits comfortably inside the Top 50 but is only 4-6 on hard courts this season. He’s been miles off it in terms of productivity when compared to his solid clay credentials.
Prediction: Hijikata in 2
Arthur Cazaux vs Matteo Arnaldi
Head-to-head: Arnaldi 1-0 Cazaux
Cazaux and Arnaldi’s only meeting before this week was at the 2024 Barcelona Open, and that ended in retirement with the first set locked at 5-5 and Cazaux horribly rolled his ankle. It took him out for months before he was back to his best level last year. This season, the Frenchman has slightly outperformed Arnaldi, with three more wins to his tally and with fewer defeats. Arnaldi is not lacking in firepower, but his confidence dipped in North America. He lost four matches in a row, and none more heartbreaking than squandering a two-set lead in the opening round of the US Open.
Prediction: Cazaux in 3
Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Valentin Royer
Head-to-head: first meeting
Royer’s first season on the ATP Tour is far from a success, but it is a great learning experience. He qualified for his maiden Grand Slam at Wimbledon and beat Stefanos Tsitsipas in the opening round, albeit via retirement. This is his third main draw at this level, and he’s had to come through the qualifying draw each time. Kovacevic’s form took a sharp nosedive after his runner-up finish in Los Cabos, losing five times in his last seven matches. While the American plays the more efficient brand of tennis, Royer is quick around the court and could overwork him.
Prediction: Royer in 3
David Goffin vs Aleksandar Vukic
Head-to-head: Goffin 1-1 Vukic
Goffin has lost a lot of pace in recent years. Over half of his 21 defeats this season have been in straight sets. And because of that, Goffin now relies too much on precision and overpowering opponents. They are not his greatest attributes, but when he plays with a high margin for error and chooses the safest shots, he is competitive. He’s got the blueprint on how to beat Vukic after winning their last meeting.
Prediction: Goffin in 3
Sebastian Korda vs Adam Walton
Head-to-head: first meeting
Korda missed the Asian swing last season. In fact, his 2024 campaign ended after the US Open. That premature end to his season and an injury setback at this year’s grass-court swing largely contributed to his ranking plummeting to as low as 86th. And it was another injury, this time on his lower back, which forced him to retire in each of his last two tournaments. As long as Korda is fully fit, he is simply good enough to get his season on the right track. But if he is nowhere near 100%, then any physical dip will easily be exploited.
Prediction: Korda in 2
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
