When the Wimbledon Final ended, Carlos Alcaraz had just completed one of the best three-month stretches of tennis in the post-Big 3 era. He went 33–2, reached six consecutive finals, and won Monte Carlo, the Italian Open, Roland Garros, and Queen’s. His only two losses came to an inspired Holger Rune in Barcelona, where Alcaraz could barely move by the end due to injury, and to Jannik Sinner in the Wimbledon final.
If you stretch this run back to last year, Alcaraz has now reached the final in eight straight natural surface events, and nine of his last ten. Extend it even further to 2022, and the numbers remain impressive: in all the natural surface tournaments he played (excluding mid-match retirements), he’s won 14 of 28 and reached six more finals.
His overall match record stands at 125–15, an 89% win rate. Do these numbers belong to an “inconsistent” player?
Rewriting the Narrative
Much of the recent discourse around Alcaraz, especially since his generational rival elevated himself to all-time great status, centers on his supposed inconsistency. But hasn’t he already disproved that?
For at least three seasons, Carlos has been as reliable as it gets on two of the tour’s three surfaces. What has held him back from producing PlayStation-like numbers overall is his performance on hard courts. During this same period, he’s posted a respectable 99–29 record on hard courts, a solid 77% win rate, but that’s still a 12% drop from his results on clay and grass.
Since 2022, Alcaraz has made the quarterfinals of hard-court tournaments 72% of the time. That’s great. But where he wins every other natural surface tournament, he wins only around 20% on cement. This is the heart of the “inconsistent consistencies” of Carlos Alcaraz.
A look back at the beginning
Let’s go back to 2021. Stefanos Tsitsipas was set to face a spirited teenager. Hours later, the jokes were over. After a slow start and a third set that Tsitsipas should never have lost, the match seemed under control. He served a bagel in the fourth set—it looked like a sure five-set win against a gassed 18-year-old.
Exactly 59 minutes later, the teenager was on the floor, celebrating. It was one of the first “How did he do that?” moments. For those who knew Alcaraz before that match, this was a clear inflection point in both his game and his fan following.
One year later, on that same court, he won his first Grand Slam, becoming the youngest world No. 1 in history. He won three consecutive five-set matches to get there—against an aging legend, his generational rival, and a home-crowd favorite.
By then, he had already won Miami, lost a classic at Indian Wells to a Mount Rushmore-level player on what turned out to be his last hurrah, and lifted the US Open trophy, all on hard courts. The grit and effort shown during that stretch is the foundation of the question we’re asking today.
Not Inconsistent, Just Not Invincible
Alcaraz is not a below-average or even mediocre hard-court player. He’s clearly above average—often great, sometimes very good. The real issue is that he’s not a .900-level player on this surface, which makes up about 60% of the ATP calendar.
His back-to-back breakout and breakthrough US Open runs made many fans expect him to dominate every hard-court event. But context is everything—and it’s often what we forget.
Let’s consider that context. His breakout moment came against an opponent he has gone on to beat in every version of himself: tired, injured, or missing a forehand. That opponent is 6–7 lifetime at the US Open and 1–3 there since that match.
His breakthrough? It occurred when the two best players in the world were either injured or unable to play due to vaccine mandates. The draw was more open than usual.
None of this diminishes one of the most memorable tennis moments of the 2020s. Alcaraz maximized his window, delivered a five-set classic, and left us with a tournament full of unforgettable memories. But in doing so, we lost the nuance. Instead, we placed unrealistic expectations and unfair pressure on someone who has already done more than most by age 22.
Game Style and Hard Court Challenges
Alcaraz is an all-court player with a variety package rarely seen in tennis. But his biggest weapons, especially the forehand, need time to load and operate. That added shape and weight on his shots help him dominate on clay and grass, but they also make him vulnerable. And on hard courts, where speeds have increased across the board, that’s a real problem.
Like every great player, he is aware of this and has taken steps to adapt.
- He reworked his serve, removing a mechanical lag. Over time, this should result in a more precise, efficient motion, more free points, and quicker holds—reducing his exposure to being rushed.
- He’s also adjusted his backhand swing, making it more compact. This change allows for faster preparation and better handling of flat, pace-heavy balls, common on hard courts.
While these tweaks didn’t yield immediate rewards, during the Australian Open and the Sunshine Double, they are clearly long-term plays. The next two tournaments will give us a better sense of where those adjustments stand.
Looking Ahead
So, what should we expect from Alcaraz in the coming months?
More than just results, the priority is real improvement in his game. He doesn’t defend many ranking points during this stretch, so everything is there to gain. After a post-Wimbledon break, he should return healthy and motivated.
A good run in Cincinnati, and one especially at the US Open, should be well within reach, along with steady progress in both his mental game and technical development. The courts may not be ideal for his style, and an early loss is a possibility. But there’s no harm in that.
Every all-time great has surface preferences. No one wins everything, everywhere, every year. Greatness is about finding balance, tweaking racquet setups, movement, and strokes to meet the demands of each surface. Alcaraz is in that same process.
Will he ever be as consistent, week-to-week, as Sinner has been over the last 18 months? Probably not. But he doesn’t need to be.
Since the start of 2024, Alcaraz and Sinner have split the seven major titles and won three Masters 1000s each. Sinner has been more complete and reliable. But Alcaraz has ruled the dirt and the grass, just as any “best player in the world” should on their preferred surfaces.
At just 22, the most exciting thing to watch post-Wimbledon isn’t necessarily results, but evolution: the tweaks, the adjustments, the upgrades. The wins may not come immediately, but they’ll come. One way or another, Carlos Alcaraz will get there—as far as his game and mind will take him.
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-Imagn Images
