ATP Masters 1000 Rome Final
Alcaraz – Sinner: 18.05.2025 12:00 CEST
H2H: 7-5
Carlos Alcaraz has won five straight matches. This is his second appearance in Rome. In the opening round, Alcaraz won against Lajovic 6-3 6-3. The Spaniard faced another Serb in the third round. He trailed 1-3 in the opening set against Djere but turned it around. In the 1/8-Finals, Alcaraz had his toughest challenge so far this week. He defeated Khachanov in three tight sets after spending almost three hours on the court. In the quarterfinals, Alcaraz defeated Draper in straight sets. He trailed 2-4 in the opening set but turned it around.
Yesterday, after playing for two hours, the Spaniard defeated Musetti 6-3 7-6 in the semifinals. He trailed 2-4 in the second set but turned it again. Alcaraz was great under pressure throughout the whole week. In his debut campaign, the Spaniard lost against Marozsan in the third round.
Jannik Sinner has won 29 straight matches. He is returning to competitive tennis after serving a three-month suspension related to anti-doping procedures. This week in Rome, Sinner easily won his opening-round match against Navone in straight sets. In the third round, he defeated de Jong in straight sets. Sinner lost his serve twice against the Dutch but still won in straight sets. In the 1/8-Finals, Cerundolo put up a big fight against Sinner but still fell short, losing in straight sets. In the quarterfinals, Sinner demolished Ruud, winning 6-0 6-1. He served great, but he did not offer any breakpoints.
In the semifinals, Sinner had his biggest challenge of the week yesterday. After losing the opening set 1-6, the Italian stepped up his level and turned the match quickly around, winning 1-6 6-0 6-3. Before this year’s edition, Sinner has never made it past the quarterfinals in Rome.
Best Bets to Make
Main Bet
According to the bookies, Alcaraz is the slight underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. We saw some inconsistency in Sinner’s game throughout the week; even though he was dominant, he still lost his serve often. On the other hand, Alcaraz gradually improved as the week went on so we expect him to deliver his best tennis in the final. The Spaniard leads 2-1 at the head-to-head meetings on clay, which was always tight. We believe he will play his best tennis and keep the match close.
That being said, Alcaraz covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Carlos Alcaraz +1.5 games handicap @-110 @FanDuel
Extra Bet
As previously mentioned, Alcaraz and Sinner are in great form. In their head-to-head meetings, they have always gone the distance when playing on clay courts. We expect a similar outcome tomorrow as well.
That being said, over games is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: over 22.5 games @1.83 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
