ATP Masters 1000 Madrid 1/16-Finals
Khachanov – Paul: 28.04.2025 19:30 CEST
H2H: 0-1
Karen Khachanov has won four of his last five matches. This week in Madrid, Khachanov defeated Opelka in two tiebreaks. He served well throughout the match, not offering any breakpoints.
Tommy Paul has won three of his last five matches. This week in Madrid, Paul also won the opening match against Fonseca in two tiebreaks. He was great under pressure, saving ten of the eleven breakpoints. The young American saved two consecutive set points in the opening set.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Paul is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He played his best tennis against Fonseca, and we expect him to continue playing in that fashion tonight. On the other hand, Khachanov struggled in the opening round against Opelka.
That being said, Paul winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Tommy Paul winning @1.67 @bet365
1/8-Finals
Mensik – Bublik: 29.04.2025 Time TBA
H2H: 1-1
Jakub Mensik has won four of his last five matches. This week in Madrid, the Czech defeated Quinn in straight sets. He trailed 3-5 in the opening set but turned it around. In the third round, Mensik defeated Shelton in straight sets. He served great throughout the match, not offering any breakpoints.
Alexander Bublik has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Munich, Bublik lost in the opening round against Bergs in three tight sets. This week in Madrid, Bublik upset Rublev in the third round, winning in three sets. Last season in Madrid, Bublik lost in the fourth round against Medvedev in straight sets. He has never made it past the quarterfinals.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Mensik is the favourite in this matchup, but we disagree. Bublik is in great form and has already defeated three tough opponents this week in Madrid. He has a great serve, and we expect him to keep this match tight.
That being said, Bublik covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Alexander Bublik +3.5 games handicap @1.73 @bet365
Zverev – Cerundolo: 29.04.2025 Time TBA
H2H: 0-2
Alexander Zverev has won seven straight matches. Last week in Munich, Zverev won the season’s first title, defeating Shelton in the final in straight sets. He enjoys playing in Madrid, where he won the title twice. The German defeated Davidovich Fokina in three tight sets in the third round. Last season in Madrid, Zverev lost against Cerundolo in the fourth round.
Francisco Cerundolo has won four of his last five matches. This week in Madrid, the Argentine easily won the opening two matches in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Cerundolo is the underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. Zverev has no answer for Cerundolo’s game. So far, Cerundolo won both matches on clay against Zverev. Last season in Madrid, the Argentine defeated Zverev easily in the 1/8-Finals. We expect a similar outcome tomorrow as well.
That being said, Cerundolo winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Francisco Cerundolo winning @2.38 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: David Kirouac-USA TODAY Sports
