ATP Masters 1000 Madrid 1/8-Finals
Fritz – Ruud: 29.04.2025 Time TBA
H2H: 1-3
Taylor Fritz has won four of his last five matches. His last match before the ATP Masters in Madrid was in Miami, where Mensik upset him in the semifinals. Fritz won the opening match against O’Connell in straight sets this week in Madrid. In the third round, Bonzi retired mid-match against Fritz. Last season in Madrid, Fritz lost against Rublev in the semifinals.
Casper Ruud has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Barcelona, Ruud lost against Rune in the quarterfinals in straight sets. This week in Madrid, the Norwegian defeated Rinderknech in straight sets in the opening round. In the second round, Korda had no answer for Ruud’s game. The Norwegian defeated Korda in straight sets easily. Last season in Madrid, Ruud reached the fourth round, losing against Auger-Aliassime in straight sets.
Best Bets to Make
Main Bet
According to the bookies, this will be an almost 50-50 matchup, but we disagree. Ruud is a way better clay-court player than Fritz, and we expect him to win tomorrow. Last season in Paris, Ruud defeated Fritz in four sets. Fritz struggled in the third-round match against Bonzi, and we believe he has no weapons for Ruud’s game on clay.
That being said, Ruud winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Casper Ruud winning @1.73 @bet365
Extra Bet
The conditions in Madrid are fast. Fritz has a heavy serve but is a poor returner. We believe we will watch at least one tiebreak in this match.
That being said, at least one tiebreak in the match is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: over 0.5 tiebreaks in the match @1.80 @bet365
Medvedev – Nakashima: 29.04.2025 Time TBA
H2H: 1-0
Daniil Medvedev has won four of his last five matches. This week in Madrid, Djere retired from the opening-round match against Medvedev. Yesterday, in the third round, Medvedev demolished J.M. Cerundolo 6-2 6-2. He was great under pressure, offering and saving only one breakpoint. Last season in Madrid, Medvedev reached the quarterfinals, losing against Lehecka.
Brandon Nakashima has lost three of his last five matches. This week in Madrid, he defeated Ofner in the opening round in straight sets. He was great under pressure, saving the only breakpoint he offered. Yesterday, in the third round, the American defeated Cobolli in straight sets. He trailed 2-4 in the opening set but turned it around. Last season in Madrid, Nakashima lost in the opening round against Bagnis in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Medvedev is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. Nakashima took advantage of a favourable draw this week in Madrid. He usually underperforms on clay courts. On the other hand, Medvedev also struggles on clay, but he is more experienced at the Masters 1000 level, so we expect him to be a better player and win.
That being said, Medvedev winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Daniil Medvedev winning 2-0 @2.10 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
