ATP Masters 1000 Madrid 1/16-Finals
Draper – Berrettini: 28.04.2025 18:00 CEST
H2H: 2-0
Jack Draper has won three of his last five matches. Draper won the opening match against Griekspoor this week in Madrid in straight sets. He offered and saved only one breakpoint.
Matteo Berrettini has won three of his last five matches. This week in Madrid, the Italian defeated Giron in three sets after spending almost three hours on the court. Berrettini turned the match around after losing the opening set 6-7.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Draper is the favourite in this matchup, but we disagree. The Brit usually struggles on clay courts. On the other hand, Berrettini enjoys playing on clay and is in solid form. We expect Berrettini to keep this match tight.
That being said, Berrettini covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Matteo Berrettini +2.5 games handicap @1.80 @bet365
Tsitsipas – Musetti: 28.04.2025 20:00 CEST
H2H: 5-1
Stefanos Tsitsipas has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Barcelona, Tsitsipas retired at the beginning of the match against Fils in the quarterfinals. This week in Madrid, Tsitsipas defeated Struff in three tight sets. Last season in Madrid, Monteiro upset him in the second round.
Lorenzo Musetti has won four of his last five matches. His last match before ATP Masters in Madrid was in Monte Carlo, where he finished as a runner-up, losing against Alcaraz in three sets. Musetti defeated Etcheverry in the opening round in straight sets this week in Madrid.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, this will be a 50-50 matchup, but we disagree. Musetti is in great form and played well in the opening match against Etcheverry. Earlier this season in Monte Carlo, Musetti won against Tsitsipas. We expect a similar outcome tonight as well.
That being said, Musetti winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Lorenzo Musetti winning @1.91 @bet365
De Minaur – Shapovalov: 28.04.2025 20:30 CEST
H2H: 4-1
Alex de Minaur has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Barcelona, he reached the quarterfinals, losing against Alcaraz in straight sets. This week in Madrid, he won against Sonego 6-2 6-3. Besides losing his serve at the beginning of the match, he served well throughout the match.
Denis Shapovalov has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Munich, Shapovalov retired mid-match against Dedura in the opening round. This week in Madrid, Shapovalov easily defeated Nishikori in straight sets. Last season in Madrid, Shapovalov lost in the third round against Zverev in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, de Minaur is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He played most of his career in Spain under similar conditions and is in great form. We expect him to dominate in this match and win in straight sets.
That said, de Minaur winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Alex de Minaur winning 2-0 @1.73 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
