ATP Masters 1000 Madrid 1/16-Finals
De Minaur – Shapovalov: 27.04.2025 Time TBA
H2H: 4-1
Alex de Minaur has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Barcelona, he reached the quarterfinals but lost against Alcaraz in straight sets. This week in Madrid, the young Australian dominated against Sonego in the opening round.
Denis Shapovalov has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Munich, Shapovalov retired mid-match against Dedura in the opening round. This week in Madrid, Shapovalov defeated Nishikori in straight sets in the opening round. Last season in Madrid, Shapovalov lost in the third round against Zverev in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, de Minaur is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He played most of his career in Spain under similar conditions and is in great form. We expect him to dominate in this match and win in straight sets.
That being said, de Minaur winning 2-0 is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Alex de Minaur winning 2-0 @2.20 @bet365
Shelton – Mensik: 27.04.2025 Time TBA
H2H: 1-1
Ben Shelton has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Munich, he had a decent run, finishing as runner-up. This week in Madrid, he defeated Navone in the opening round in three tight sets after losing the opening set 4-6. Last season in Madrid, he lost against Bublik in the third round.
Jakub Mensik has won four of his last five matches. This week in Madrid, the Czech defeated Quinn in straight sets. He trailed 3-5 in the opening set but turned it around.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Mensik is the slight favourite in this matchup, and we agree. Shelton spent too much time on the court in the last few weeks. On the other hand, Mensik was dominant in the opening round, and we expect him to win tomorrow.
That being said, Mensik winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Jakub Mensik winning @1.67 @bet365
Zverev – Davidovich Fokina: 27.04.2025 Time TBA
H2H: 4-1
Alexander Zverev has won six straight matches. Last week in Munich, Zverev won the season’s first title, defeating Shelton in the final in straight sets. He enjoys playing in Madrid, where he won the title twice. In the opening round, the German defeated Bautista-Agut in straight sets. Last season in Madrid, Zverev lost against Cerundolo in the fourth round.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Barcelona, the Spaniard lost against Khachanov in the quarterfinals. This week in Madrid, Davidovich Fokina dominated against Borges in the opening round, winning in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Zverev is the favourite in this matchup, but we disagree. Davidovich Fokina played extremely well in the opening round. Zverev had almost no time for rest between Munich and Madrid. We expect Davidovich Fokina to keep this match tight.
That said, Davidovich Fokina covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina +3.5 games handicap @1.83 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
