ATP Monte Carlo Best Bets Including Tallon Greikspoor vs Arthur Fils
The ATP Monte Carlo Masters is underway this week, and the action is robust. My featured match is Tallon Griekspoor versus Arthur Fils. Here are my best bets. Do you agree? Did I hit the mark? Let me know in the comments below.
ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Griekspoor – Fils: Time 14:30
H2H: 1-1
Tallon Griekspoor and Arthur Fils may have only played twice, but they don’t know how to do anything half-cocked. The two have nine sets between them, and have only played twice. They believe in playing epic and lengthy matches, with the Dutchman taking the 2024 Australian Open, and the Frenchman taking the 2023 U.S. Open. When playing on clay, Griekspoor is widely more tested on clay at 188-107, but Fils is no slouch, checking in at 80-51 on clay.
Best Bet to Make
Both men are playing well lately. Griekspoor is coming off a loss in the Grand Prix Hassan II in Marrakech, Fils lost in the quarterfinals of the Miami Open. The margins are slim, but Griekspoor is playing slightly better at the moment and has at least reached the quarterfinals, semifinals, and final of his past three tournaments while Fils has only made two quarterfinals. The books have Fils as a favorite, but I do not agree.
That being said, Griekspoor winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Griekspoor winning @+170 @Pinnacle
Lajovic – Cobolli: Time 13:00
H2H: 1-0
Dusan Lajovic versus Flavio Cobolli is an extremely interesting match on paper. Cobolli seems like he would overwhelm a guy like Lajovic if all you knew were their world rankings. It’s when you dig a little deeper, you realize Lajovic absolutely lives on a clay court and Cobolli isn’t too bad himself. Cobolli is 137-89 on clay while Lajovic is a staggering 390-255, which translates to a 60% winning rate on clay. Then there’s the little matter of Lajovic taking their only match on clay in straight sets at the Croatia Open.
Mar 12, 2022; Indian Wells, CA, USA; Tomas Machac (CZE) hits a shot in his 2nd round match against Daniil Medvedev (RUS) at the BNP Paribas open at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports | Source: Lastwordonsports.com - Yesh Ginsburg
Best Bet to Make
The books have the Italian winning, but I do not agree. Lajovic has taken a match on clay between them before, and clay is indisputably his preference for court types. Neither guy is having a particularly great year, and both guys are two games below .500 for 2025. It would seem to me that, when the chips are down, the smart money is on the guy who is playing his preferred match against a guy he knows he can beat. That said, you can still make money betting on Cobolli. You can just make more with Lajovic.
That being said, Lajovic winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Lajovic winning @+105 @Unibet
Machac – Baez: Time 14:30
H2H: 0-0
Tomas Machac versus Sebastian Baez is a meeting of two Top 35 opponents who have never met before. This is going to be Machac’s first match on clay in 2025, while Baez is already 15-4 on clay in 2025. Baez enters after a loss to Flavio Cobolli in the final of the Bucharest Open, and Machac enters after winning his Ultimate Tennis Showdown match against Alex De Minaur. Machac is 8-2 in his last ten, Baez is 6-4.
Best Bet to Make
The books are offering quality odds on both players. While Machac is the favorite, you can still make money picking him. Baez is an underwhelming underdog at 2.23, almost making Machac at 1.72 look like the smarter bet. Given that the books think Machac is also going to win, I think the smart money is to take the smaller winnings on the more consistent player.
That being said, Machac to win is a value bet for sure. Value bet/ the best odds: Machac winning @-138 @Pinnacle
Main Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
