ATP 250 Houston semifinals
Paul – Brooksby: 05.04.2025 20:00 CEST
H2H: 3-0
Tommy Paul has won three of his last five matches. He is the first seed this week in Houston. In the opening round match, Paul defeated Garin in three tight sets after losing the opening set 2-6. Yesterday, in the quarterfinals, Smith had no answer for Paul’s game. Paul was great under pressure, saving all three breakpoints and eventually winning in straight sets.
Jenson Brooksby has won five straight matches. This week in Houston, Brooskby qualified for the main draw tournament. His toughest challenge happened in the 1/8-Finals against Tabilo. Brooksby lost the opening set 3-6 but turned the match around. He saved three consecutive match points in the deciding set. Brooksby lost the opening set 2-6 in the quarterfinals but turned it around. He spent over two hours on the court.
Best Bets to Make
Main Bet
According to the bookies, we agree that Paul is the favorite in this matchup. He is the biggest favorite to win the title this week, and we expect him to do so. Brooksby spent around six hours in the past two matches and will be fatigued coming into this match. On the other hand, Paul dominated against Smith in the quarterfinals. We expect Paul to win comfortably.
That being said, Paul winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Tommy Paul winning 2-0 @1.83 @bet365
Extra Bet
Tommy Paul dominated in the opening set against Smith. He served fantastic, but he did not offer any breakpoints. On the other hand, Brooksby lost the opening set in the past two matches and struggled with his serve at the beginning of the matches. We expect a similar outcome tonight.
That being said, Paul getting the first break is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Tommy Paul service break number 1 @-196 @FanDuel
Nakashima – Tiafoe: 05.04.2025 21:30 CEST
H2H: 1-5
Brandon Nakashima has won four of his last five matches. This week in Houston, he won the opening-round match against McDonald in straight sets. He served great, not offering any breakpoints. In the quarterfinals, Eubanks also had no break opportunities, as Nakashima served excellently once again. Nakashima won 6-4 6-4 in just over an hour.
Frances Tiafoe has won three of his last five matches. This week in Houston, Tiafoe won both matches in straight sets. In the quarterfinals, Tiafoe defeated Michelsen in straight sets. After losing his serve at the beginning of the match, he stepped up his level and won comfortably. Tiafoe was the champion here in 2023 and finalist in 2024.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Nakashima is the underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. He enjoys playing in Houston and has delivered his best tennis in the opening two matches. The main factor in this match will be his serve, which was perfect so far this week. We expect Tiafoe to offer breakpoints and Nakashima to use them.
That being said, Nakashima winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Brandon Nakashima winning @2.20 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
