ATP 250 Santiago quarterfinals
Ugo Carabelli – Coria: 28.02.2025 23:00 CEST
H2H: 3-1
Camilo Ugo Carabelli has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Rio de Janeiro, Camilo reached the semifinals, eventually losing against Baez in three tight sets. This week in Santiago, Camilo won the opening-round match against Jarry in three tight sets after spending almost three hours on the court. In the second round, Ugo Carabelli lost the opening set against Monteiro 4-6 but turned the match around.
Federico Coria has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Rio de Janeiro, Coria failed to qualify for the main draw tournament. This week in Santiago, Federico demolished Barrios Vera in the opening round. He lost only one game and was dominant throughout the whole match. He offered no breakpoints. As we predicted, Coria defeated Tabilo in three sets in the second round. It is his fifth appearance in Santiago. Last season, Federico lost in the second round against Jarry in straight sets. He has never made it past the second round in Santiago.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Ugo Carabelli is the favorite in this matchup, and we agree. He won the last two head-to-head meetings in straight sets, and we expect a similar outcome tonight. Coria has been struggling with his form for the last couple of weeks. On the other hand, Camilo has been consistent on clay this season.
That being said, Ugo Carabelli winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Camilo Ugo Carabelli winning @1.62 @bet365
Dzumhur – Baez: 01.03.2025 00:30 CEST
H2H: 0-1
Damir Dzumhur has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Rio de Janeiro, Damir lost in the second round against Ugo Carabelli in straight sets. This week in Santiago, Dzumhur won the opening round match against Moutet in three tight sets. In the deciding set, Damir served well and saved both breakpoints. In the second-round match, Damir upset Navone in three tight sets. Around this time last season, he played in Dubai, where he failed to qualify for the main draw tournament.
Sebastian Baez has won six straight matches. Last week in Rio de Janeiro, Baez won the title, defeating Muller in the final in straight sets. This week in Santiago, Sebastian won the opening match against Comesana in three tight sets. Baez looked exhausted on the court. He trailed 3-5 in the deciding set tiebreak but turned it around.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Dzumhur is the big underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. Damir won against two solid clay-court players this week in Santiago. Baez is in great form but looked tired in his opening match in Santiago. We believe he is mentally and physically exhausted after winning the title in Rio de Janeiro.
That being said, Dzumhur covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Damir Dzumhur +4.5 games handicap @-110 @FanDuel
Main Photo Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
