ATP 500 Dubai 1/16-Finals
Medvedev – Struff: 25.02.2025 Time TBA
H2H: 9-2
Daniil Medvedev has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Doha, Daniil retired against Felix in the quarterfinals after losing the opening set 3-6. Medvedev said in a statement that he had food poisoning and could not continue playing. The Russian has been playing poorly for the last couple of months. He played well last week, and if he can sustain that level this week in Dubai. It is his fifth appearance in Dubai. In 2023, Daniil won the title against Rublev in straight sets. Last season, Daniil reached the semifinals, losing against Humbert in straight sets.
Jan-Lennard Struff has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Doha, Struff lost in the opening round against Griekspoor in straight sets. It was a tight match that could have gone either way. However, Struff lost the most important points of the match. So far this season, he has not had any remarkable results. It is his eighth appearance in Dubai. Last season, Jan lost in the opening round against Hurkacz in three tiebreaks.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Medvedev is the big favorite in this matchup, but we disagree. Struff has not had any remarkable results this season, but they were mostly big fights and tight matches. He is a big server and will hold his service games easily. We expect him to keep this match tight.
That being said, Struff covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Jan-Lennard Struff +4.5 games handicap @1.67 @bet365
Monfils – Berrettini: 25.02.2025 Time TBA
H2H: 0-3
Gael Monfils has won four of his last five matches. His last match was at the Australian Open. Gael had a decent run in Melbourne, reaching the second week of the Australian Open. He retired in the 1/8-Finals against Shelton in the fourth set. The French veteran was forced to retire because of a back injury. Monfils won the title in Auckland at the beginning of the season, winning against Bergs in the final. It is his sixth appearance in Dubai. Last season, Gael lost against Humbert in the opening round.
Matteo Berrettini has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Doha, Matteo reached the quarterfinals, losing against Draper in three tight sets, as we predicted. As we had predicted, Matteo upset Djokovic in straight sets en route to the quarterfinals. It was his second appearance in Dubai. In his debut campaign, 2021, Matteo lost against Kudla in the opening round.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Matteo is the favorite in this matchup, but we disagree. Monfils has been playing well this season. He had enough time to recover and get ready for the tournament. He is a big server, and we believe he will hold his service games easily and keep this match tight.
That being said, Monfils covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Gael Monfils +2.5 games handicap @1.83 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
