ATP 500 Rio de Janeiro 1/8-Finals
Baez – Tseng: 21.02.2025 Time TBA
H2H: 0-2
Sebastian Baez has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Buenos Aires, Sebastian lost in the second round against Seyboth Wild in straight sets, as we predicted. This week in Rio de Janeiro, Sebastian won the opening match against Burruchaga in straight sets. He was a better player throughout the match and deservedly won in straight sets. As we had predicted, Sebastian won against Navone in three tight sets in the second round, his fourth appearance in Rio. He is the defending champion here. Last season, Baez won in the final against Navone in straight sets.
Chun Hsin Tseng has won four of his last five matches. This week in Rio de Janeiro, Tseng successfully qualified for the main draw tournament, winning both qualifying matches in three tight sets. In the opening main draw round, Tseng upset Tabilo in straight sets. He trailed 0-3 in the second set and even saved two consecutive points. Yesterday, in the second round, Tseng defeated Monteiro after spending almost four hours on the court. Tseng successfully turned the match around after losing the first set 6-7.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Baez is the favorite in this matchup, and we agree. Sebastian is a way better clay-court player than Tseng. Baez had a tough draw but overcame his opponents. On the other hand, Tseng spent a lot of time on the court this week and will be exhausted. We expect Baez to dominate from the start until the end.
That being said, Baez winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Sebastian Baez winning 2-0 @1.80 @bet365
Zverev – Comesana: 21.02.2025 Time TBA
H2H: first meeting
Alexander Zverev has won three of his last five matches. In his opening clay court tournament, Sascha underperformed. Last week in Buenos Aires, Cerundolo, as we predicted, upset Zverev in the quarterfinals in three sets. Sascha won the opening match against Bu this week in Rio de Janeiro in tight straight sets. He struggled in the opening set, saving the set point. In the second round, Zverev won against Shevchenko in tight straight sets, as we predicted. Last season, Zverev played well on clay. He reached the final at the French Open and won the Masters 1000 title in Rome.
Francisco Comesana has won three of his last five matches. Comesana won the opening match against Heide this week in Rio de Janeiro in three tight sets. He was solid under pressure, saving six out of the seven breakpoints. Yesterday, in the second round, Comesana spent over three hours on the court, winning against Jarry in three tiebreaks.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Zverev is the favorite in this matchup, and we agree. He was not brilliant in the opening matches, but we expect him to level up as the tournament progresses. He will face Comesana, who spent almost seven hours on the court during his opening two matches. Zverev will be fitter on the court and dominate from the start.
That being said, Zverev covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Alexander Zverev -4.5 games handicap @-122 @FanDuel
Main Photo Credit: Peter van den Berg-USA TODAY Sports
