WTA Australian Open semifinals
Keys – Swiatek: 23.01.2025 11:00 CEST
H2H: 1-4
Madison Keys has won ten straight matches. Last week in Adelaide, Madison won the title, winning against Pegula in the final in three sets. At the beginning of the season, Madison played in Auckland, losing against Tauson in the quarterfinals.
At the Australian Open, Keys won her straight-set opening match against Li. Her most demanding challenge in the tournament happened in the second round against Ruse. Keys trailed 2-3 in the deciding set but successfully turned the match around. Ruse was a big underdog but played well, almost upsetting Keys. In the 1/8-Finals, Madison defeated Rybakina in three sets. It was an exciting match, with both players making many unforced errors. Today, in the quarterfinals, Keys defeated Svitolina in three sets, as we predicted. After losing the first set 3-6, she kept playing aggressively. It paid off as she increased her winners and reduced her unforced errors in the deciding set.
The American 19th seed moved into the semifinals for the third time, just 10 years after her first semifinal appearance at the Australian Open. She last played in Melbourne in 2023, losing in the third round against Azarenka in three sets.
Iga Swiatek has won five straight matches. Swiatek played in the United Cup at the beginning of the season, helping Poland reach the final. In her final match for Poland, Iga lost against Coco Gauff in straight sets.
So far in the tournament, Iga won all her matches in straight sets. In the opening round, Iga defeated Siniakova in straight sets. It was not a brilliant performance by Iga, as she lost her serve twice. In the second and third rounds, Iga lost only three games against Sramkova and Raducanu. In the 1/8-Finals, Iga defeated Lys 6-0 6-1 in just an hour. This time, she saved both breakpoints. Today, in the quarterfinals, Swiatek demolished Navarro in straight sets, as we predicted. Iga offered and saved only one breakpoint. She was unplayable in both sets and dominated from the start until the end.
Iga never had any success at the Australian Open. Her biggest result happened in 2022, reaching the semifinals and losing against Collins in straight sets. She is looking for her sixth major title. Four of those titles happened in Paris, winning the French Open. Her only hard-court Grand Slam title was in 2022, winning against Ons Jabeur in the final of the US Open.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Swiatek is the favorite in this matchup, and we agree. Iga has lost only 14 games at this year’s Australian Open. She was dominant in every match so far. Madison Keys also played well, but she struggled in several matches. We believe that Keys has no weapons against Iga and expect Swiatek to dominate again. They played against each other twice last year. Iga won both matches in easy straight sets, and we expect a similar outcome tomorrow.
That being said, Swiatek covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Iga Swiatek -5.5 games handicap @2.10 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
