ATP Australian Open 1/8-Finals
Michelsen – de Minaur: 20.01.2025 10:30 CEST
H2H: 1-1
Alex Michelsen has won four of his last five matches. As we predicted, he won the opening-round match against Tsitsipas in the Australian Open in four sets. So far in the tournament, Alex has lost only one set. In the second round, he won against McCabe in tight straight sets. Yesterday, in the third round, Michelsen upset Khachanov in straight sets. Alex saved all four breakpoints. Last year in Melbourne, Alex reached the third round, losing against Zverev in straight sets.
Alex de Minaur has won five straight matches. So far this season, Alex has only played in the United Cup, winning both matches. In the opening Australian Open round, de Minaur won against Van de Zandschulp in straight sets. After that, in the second round, Alex also won against Boyer in straight sets. De Minaur is the eighth seed, and the home crowd has big expectations. Nick Kyrgios lost in the opening round, so Alex remains their biggest hope. Yesterday, in the third round, de Minaur defeated Cerundolo in four tight sets, as we predicted. Last year in the Australian Open, de Minaur reached the 1/8-Finals, losing against Rublev in five sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Michelsen is the big favorite in this matchup, but we disagree. Michelsen is a heavy hitter and has performed great this week. We expect him to hold his service games comfortably and keep this match tight.
That being said, Michelsen covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Alex Michelsen +5.5 games handicap @1.83 @bet365
Monfils – Shelton: 20.01.2025 05:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Gael Monfils has won eight straight matches. Last week in Auckland, Monfils won the title, winning against Bergs in the final in straight sets as we predicted. Gael showcased great tennis and looked fit for his age on the court. In the opening round of the Australian Open, Monfils defeated Mpetshi Perricard in five tight sets after spending almost four hours on the court. After that, in the second round, Gael won against Altmaier in straight sets. Yesterday, in the third round, Gael upset Fritz in four sets. Last year in Melbourne, Monfils reached the second round, losing against Etcheverry in straight sets.
Ben Shelton has won three of his last five matches. He started this season with a loss in Auckland last week. In the opening Australian Open round, Shelton defeated Nakashima in tight straight sets. After that, in the second round, Ben defeated Carreno-Busta in four tight sets. This is his third appearance in the Australian Open. Yesterday, in the third round, Shelton defeated Musetti in four sets, as we predicted. Last year, Ben was upset by Adrian Mannarino in the third round, losing in five tight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Shelton is the slight favorite in this matchup, but we disagree. Both Ben and Gael played well this week. Both players have a heavy serve, and we expect a very tight match with possible tiebreaks that could go either way.
That being said, over games is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: over 41.5 games @1.83 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
