ATP Australian Open 1/64-Finals
Sonego – Wawrinka: 14.01.2025 TBA
H2H: 0-1
Lorenzo Sonego has lost three of his last five matches. Lorenzo reached the second round this week in Auckland, losing against Michelsen in tight straight sets. Lorenzo is lurking around the top 50 in the rankings, hoping for a solid result in Melbourne to return to the top 50. So far this season, Sonego has played two preparation tournaments and lost in the second round each time. Last season, besides winning the title in Winston-Salem, Lorenzo has not had any remarkable results. Last year in Melbourne, Sonego reached the second round of the Australian Open, losing against Alcaraz in four tight sets
Stanislas Wawrinka has lost three of his last five matches. So far this season, Wawrinka has not played any matches. His last match was in Belgrade last year, where he lost in the opening round against Djere in straight sets. His last win was over two months ago in Bratislava in the Challenger tournament. Last year in Melbourne, Wawrinka lost in the opening round against Mannarino in five sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Sonego is the slight favorite in this match. Wawrinka turns 40 this year, and you can see a drop in his form. Last year in Melbourne, Stanislas was 2-1 up against Mannarino in the opening round. However, he lost the fourth and fifth sets easily because he had no energy at all. We believe that his body can not handle more than three sets anymore.
That being said, Sonego winning 3-0 or 3-1 is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Lorenzo Sonego -1.5 sets @1.83 @bet365
Tsitsipas – Michelsen: 13.01.2025 01:00 CEST
H2H: 0-1
Stefanos Tsitsipas has lost three of his last five matches. So far this season, Tsitsipas has only played in the United Cup. He won his opening match against Carreno-Busta in three tight sets. After that, against Kazakhstan, Stefanos was upset by Shevchenko in straight sets. A Greek is no longer part of the top-10 group. Last season, Tsitsipas underperformed on hard courts. Last year in Melbourne, Tsitsipas lost in the 1/8-Finals against Fritz in four sets.
Alex Michelsen has won three of his last five matches. Michelsen is a young, upcoming American star. Michelsen reached the quarterfinals this week in Auckland, losing against Basavareddy in three tight sets. So far this season, Alex has already played two preparation tournaments. Last year in Melbourne, Michelsen reached the third round, losing against Zverev in straight sets. However, Alex is more experienced now and hopes for a better result this season.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Michelsen is the underdog in this match, but we disagree. In their only head-to-head meeting, Alex defeated Tsitsipas in three comfortable sets last year in Tokyo. Tsitsipas struggles with his backhand, so Michelsen will likely dominate in the rallies. Michelsen is currently in better form than Tsitsipas and also played more matches this season, so we expect him to be confident coming into this match.
That being said, Michelsen winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Alex Michelsen winning @2.63 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Danielle Parhizkaran-USA TODAY Sports
