The epic men’s singles final at Wimbledon is still being talked about all over the world. Obviously Carlos Alcaraz and those closest to him were the most delighted after the Spaniard’s extraordinary win, but there are three men who I can imagine breathing a sigh of relief. The first is Roger Federer. Although the Swiss legend said before the tournament he would be happy to see Novak Djokovic equal his Wimbledon record of eight titles, I find that difficult to believe. The other two are Daniil Medvedev and Dominic Thiem. Both are members of the previous next generation now in their mid to late twenties that existed before Alcaraz that tried to challenge Djokovic, Federer, and Rafael Nadal. Other players in that generation who have reached a Grand Slam final but have yet to become a champion are Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alexander Zverev, Matteo Berrettini, Casper Ruud, and Nick Kyrgios.
Medvedev and Thiem are the only players from that generation to have won a Grand Slam. Therefore when watching Alcaraz’s incredible rise each man may have felt glad they took one of the chances they had to win a Grand Slam. In this article I rank which of the players from the previous next generation who have previously reached a Grand Slam final are most likely to make the last step.
A disclaimer before going further: I began writing this piece before the news of new allegations against Zverev emerged. We do not know how that story will progress further in the future. This article works under the current conditions of the players listed being able to play freely, as Zverev is still able to do currently.
Which of the Previous Next Generation is Most Likely to Win a Grand Slam?
5. Nick Kyrgios
Last year’s Wimbledon finalist is the hardest of the five players to predict. Kyrgios has all the tools to threaten any player in the world, and he may actually be the most talented of the players on this list. John Isner is the only current player I believe has a better serve when Kyrgios is at his best. He also has a devastating forehand, one of the best volleys in tennis, an excellent dropshot and one of the most consistent backhand returns in the game. The question for the Australian is mental and physical. He has had repeated injury problems, (including this year) which is likely at least partially linked to his lack of commitment to physical training throughout his career. Before last year’s run to the final at SW19 the 28 year-old had not been to a Grand Slam quarterfinal since 2015. Kyrgios is of course famed for his antics on court, and it is still a question whether he can keep his focus enough to win a Grand Slam.
Carlos Alcaraz has not doomed Nick Kyrgios, in fact the Australian if he is at his best could be one of the most likely to challenge the Spaniard. However throughout his career he has regularly doomed his own chances. It is certainly possible Kyrgios could win at Wimbledon in particular, but he has been so inconsistent I cannot justify putting him higher.
4. Casper Ruud
Fans of Casper Ruud have reason to feel aggrieved by this ranking for a man who has reached three of the last six Grand Slam finals. On a personal level I am a huge fan of Ruud, who is one of the nicest guys on the tour, and I would like him to win a Grand Slam more than anyone on this list. However, Ruud has only managed to win one set in the three Grand Slam finals, one Masters final, and World Tour Finals final he has reached. Aside from slightly underperforming against Rafael Nadal in his first Grand Slam final, the Norwegian did not play noticeably badly in any of those finals. That could indicate he lacks an extra gear against the best in big finals. Ruud also had arguably friendly draws in the Grand Slam runs he had. He faced a 34-year-old Marin Cilic playing in his first Roland Garros semifinal, debutant Grand Slam semifinalist Karen Khachanov and a very below par Alexander Zverev in his Grand Slam semifinals. The 24-year-old still deserves immense credit for reaching his three finals, but a question exists whether he is maximizing his level by achieving that much.
In addition, Ruud’s best surface by a comfortable margin is clay. Alcaraz being the only realistic challenger to Djokovic at Roland Garros this year could indicate he will dominate in Paris in particular in the future. Alcaraz then could doom Ruud by removing by far his biggest Grand Slam opportunity.
3. Stefanos Tsitsipas
The Greek reached the Australian Open final this year and held a two-set lead over Djokovic in the 2021 French Open final before the Serb recovered. Tsitsipas’s game is dangerous to anyone. His serve and forehand combination is one of the most lethal around when at its best, and he is capable of some variety such as coming to the net. However to challenge more consistently for Grand Slams in the era of Alcaraz and the other rising stars Tsitsipas desperately needs to improve his backhand in rallies and on the return. It is a flashy shot that is pleasing on the eye, but it is repeatedly his achilles heel and breaks down in big moments.
Tsitsipas could also be damaged the most by the emergence of Alcaraz. Firstly because clay is the Greek’s best surface, making the point I made previously about Alcaraz possibly dominating at Roland Garros relevant once more. But also because Alcaraz has won all five of his matches against Tsitsipas and his playing style is a nightmare for the two-time Grand Slam finalist. The biggest reason is Alcaraz is better than any other active player on the tour at targeting the Tsitsipas backhand with heavy power and topspin. The Greek could win a Grand Slam, but he may need Alcaraz to be injured or for someone else to pull off an upset win against him.
2. Matteo Berrettini
The Italian being ranked so high may surprise some. Berrettini has just one Grand Slam final to his name, at Wimbledon two years ago, when he lost to Djokovic in four sets. Also, like Ruud and Kyrgios, he has never won a Masters title. There are weaknesses in the Berrettini game such as lacking a consistent backhand and his movement not being as good as most of those near the very top.
The reason I have Berrettini second is I remain convinced his time at Wimbledon will come at least once. Both he and Kyrgios have games perfectly suited for grass, but it is Berrettini who has demonstrated a more consistent love and commitment to tennis, evidenced by the Italian crying for days when he missed Wimbledon last year after a positive Covid test. He was unlucky this year again after entering Wimbledon with almost no match practice after injury problems and actually did well to reach the fourth round considering, where he lost to Alcaraz in four sets. The presence of Alcaraz and other players in future when Djokovic retires means Wimbledon is far from a given. But Berrettini’s huge serve, his powerful forehand that works best on grass, effective slice and capable net game is a package so dangerous on grass at his best I think it will cause enough shocks at SW19 to win the title at least once even with Alcaraz in the picture. He will hope for more luck with injuries and illness in the future.
1. Alexander Zverev
Those judging Alexander Zverev solely on his performances so far this season may roll their eyes at his place at #1. He did have a good run to the semifinal at Roland Garros but lost tamely to Ruud, and has mostly struggled at other tournaments. But the German is still fully recovering from the horrific injury he suffered in last year’s French Open semifinal, and it is likely he will continue to improve whether that begins to happen quickly or more gradually. It is also easy to forget how extensive Zverev’s CV is. He has five Masters titles, two World Tour Finals titles and he is an Olympic champion. Also Zverev came the closest on this list to winning a Grand Slam after having a match point against Dominic Thiem in the 2020 US Open final. The 26 year-old’s game when near its best is very complete with a great serve and return, terrific movement for a man of six feet and six inches and an ability to hit hard off both wings. Only his second serve is a real weakness.
Zverev also holds a 3-2 head-to-head lead over Alcaraz. Granted two of those wins were in 2021 when Alcaraz was not close to the player he is now, but his win over the Spaniard at Roland Garros last year was highly impressive. Although I am confident Zverev will have both a losing head-to-head record to Alcaraz and less Grand Slams won than the 20 year-old at the end of his career, I think his dangerous style could cause upsets against Alcaraz on a few occasions when he returns to his best. Hence he is the least doomed by Alcaraz and I am confident his time will come at a Grand Slam.
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
