Third-round action continues on day six at the ATP Madrid Open. There should be plenty of entertaining action and, as ever, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for every match on the schedule, including Sebastian Baez vs Stefanos Tsitsipas. But who will book their spot in the round of 16?
ATP Madrid Day 6 Predictions
Alex de Minaur vs Aslan Karatsev
Head-to-head: de Minaur 1-0 Karatsev
Aslan Karatsev has finally been firing this week with four consecutive straight-set wins. The Russian needed an event like that and the faster clay conditions in Madrid certainly suit him. Alex de Minaur is definitely a step up compared to his previous opponents, but it’s not like the Australian is a big title contender on clay. Karatsev might very well grab another good win here, it’s certainly more on his racket than the opponent’s.
Prediction: Karatsev in 2
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Zhizhen Zhang vs Cameron Norrie
Head-to-head: first meeting
Also desperately looking for form was Zhizhen Zhang and the Chinese has to be delighted with two wins at ATP 1000 level, especially after his miserable start to 2023. He’s got everything required to give Cameron Norrie a rough time on these courts, but questions remain about the mental side of things. Ultimately, between this pair on this court, it is likely to come down to shot selection and a willingness to hang tough in rallies. There might not be much between them in other areas of the game, but the Briton has a sizeable advantage in that aspect. Expect it to prove decisive.
Prediction: Norrie in 3
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Dusan Lajovic vs Jan-Lennard Struff
Head-to-head: Struff 3-0 Lajovic
Dusan Lajovic has scored three top-10 wins over the past 11 days and the former-Monte Carlo Masters runner-up is suddenly playing some the tennis of his life. But Jan-Lennard Struff has found some form himself and despite entering this event as a lucky loser, he’s the one who could take advantage of the conditions in Madrid to put more pressure on Lajovic. It will probably be tight, but Struff should have a slightly higher upside (at least on these courts).
Prediction: Struff in 3
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Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Shevchenko
Head-to-head: first meeting
The two became good friends through a ton of PlayStation sessions together and now they’ll meet in the third round of an ATP 1000 event. Daniil Medvedev is still the favorite, although there’s always a certain aura of vulnerability regarding the Russian on clay. Alexander Shevchenko is fully capable of exposing his countryman’s lack of focus if that’s what happens, but he’s probably still a tiny bit off the level where he could take out a Medvedev, unless the world #3 has a particularly bad day at the office.
Prediction: Medvedev in 3
Main photo credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
