The first sets of second round matches kick off on Day 3 of the ATP Indian Wells Masters. With several seeds in action, there will be some upset potential of an unseeded in-form player looking to build on their momentum against a seeded player playing their first match. Daniil Medvedev will be looking to avoid the upset as he is one of the favorites to win the title at a tournament he has never won before. Four of the days matches are previewed below, and all of the others are predicted across Last Word on Tennis. We split the rest of the day’s matches between three articles. One features Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Jordan Thompson, another headlines Andrey Rublev vs Jiri Lehecka, and the third features Yibing Wu vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. Who do you think will win?
ATP Indian Wells Day 3 Predictions
Ugo Humbert vs Denis Shapovalov
Head-to-head: 3-1 Shapovalov
This is the fifth matchup between the two young lefties, and while Shapovalov leads the total, they are tied 1-1 on hard courts. Humbert scored a good first round win here in Indian Wells, which was just the second time he advanced past the first round in a Tour-level event this year. Shapovalov has not been much better, losing three of four matches since a third round appearance at the Australian Open, the same result as Humbert at the event.
Shapovalov is certainly the better player but while he has plenty of power and skill, he is also error-prone and inconsistent. He is lucky the Humbert plays a fairly similar game with a big forehand and strong sere, so he is not a defensive baseliner that Shapovalov struggles against. Neither player has been in great form, but Shapovalov has looked better against stronger competition and matches up well so he has the edge.
Prediction: Shapovalov in 3
Jason Kubler vs Grigor Dimitrov
Head-to-head: First meeting
After a difficult career, Kubler is playing some of his best tennis and recently reached a career high ranking of World #71. He has had a good start to the year playing exclusively on hard courts which has never been his strongest surface. Dimitrov is a great hard court player, and though he has only entered three events this year has an impressive 6-3 record. Dimitrov’s consistent game allows him to avoid upset losses, as shown by two of his three losses on the year to Djokovic and Medvedev.
Kubler has been playing good tennis and may frustrate Dimitrov, but the Bulgarian’s game is well suited to force him into mistakes by his strong baseline play. Dimitrov is a solid overall player and more comfortable on hard courts, so he has a significant edge against Kubler.
Prediction: Dimitrov in 2
Maxime Cressy vs Alejandro Tabilo
Head-to-head: 2-0
Cressy has continued to play well and improve over the last year and has been rewarded with a seed at his hometown tournament, just a couple of hours away from his residence in Hermosa Beach, CA. Tabilo is on the opposite end of the spectrum as a qualifier, playing two close three set matches to reach the main draw, before defeating fellow qualifier Maximilian Marterer in Round 1.
Their game styles are clashing as well with Cressy playing traditional serve-and-volley tennis with Tabilo a more defensive, clay-court style game. Indian Wells is his first tournament on hard since the Australian Open, and while he had a few matches to adjust, the speed of Cressy’s serve will poise a significant challenge. Cressy has been playing good tennis this year and Tabilo is the type of player he can overpower and use his shot speed to control the rhythm of the match start to finish.
Prediction: Cressy in 2
Daniil Medvedev vs Brandon Nakashima
Head-to-head: First meeting
Medvedev is finally looking like his dominant self again on hard courts. After falling out of the Top 10 with a disappointing Australian Open, he has won three consecutive titles, dropping just three sets in the 14 matches he has won in that span. Nakashima had a strong 2022 but unlike Medvedev has not been in the same form this year. He missed some time due to injuries but was just 1-3 coming into Indian Wells. He looked good in beating John Isner in the first round, but Medvedev presents a far greater challenge. Medvedev is at the top of his game and Nakashima is not, so this match should be a breeze for the Russian.
Prediction: Medvedev in 2
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
