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How Far Can Andy Murray Go at Wimbledon?

Andy Murray Wimbledon 2021

Andy Murray won his first singles match at the All-England Club since 2017 on Monday, providing the crowd on Centre Court with late night drama as he came through a tough four set battle with Nikoloz Basilashvili. As well as having to deal with the firepower of the Georgian from the back of the court, Murray also had to deal with his own nerves, as the magnitude of the occasion began to sink in when he served for the match in the third set. The Scot couldn’t serve it out, but got the win in four sets. Now that he is through his first match, how far can Andy Murray go at SW19?

Andy Murray At Wimbledon 2021

A Tough Start

In Many ways, Andy Murray’s first match felt like a throwback to his early career. He had many evening battles on Centre Court then, such as against Richard Gasquet in 2008, Stan Wawrinka in 2009, and Marcos Baghdatis in 2012. Due to the All-England Club’s new policy of a 30 minute gap between matches, both players did not walk out onto court until after 6 PM.

Murray took the first two sets, with Basilashvili failing to capitalize on any of his break point chances. Murray was clinical in taking his opportunities and successfully dealt with the Georgian’s weight of groundstroke. In the third set, it looked as if Basilashvili had checked out mentally, lacking the belief that he could turn around a two set deficit. Murray raced to a 5-0 lead and it looked as if the Scot would complete a routine straight sets victory.

However, nerves began to creep into Murray’s game. Basilashvili began to sense an opportunity and consistently forced Murray to play longer rallies. The Georgian kept his own unforced error count to a minimum and saved match points, winning seven games in a row to take the set. Murray was surprisingly calm given the circumstances and showed his mental toughness that has got him through so many difficult matches in his career. Murray got the early break in the fourth before being broken back. However, Murray immediately regained the break and went on to win the set and the match.

A Test of Recovery

A significant factor that will decide how far Murray can go is how his body can cope with the physical challenge of best-of-five set tennis. Despite the win on Monday, the fact that Murray was forced to play a fourth set could hurt his chances of having a deep run. Not only was Murray forced to exert more physical energy, but from a mental standpoint, the Scot had to deal with disappointment of losing the third set, followed quickly by the elation of winning the match.

The fact that Murray has played so few tournaments and matches this year makes it only logical to assume that Monday’s match will take its toll. As is true with all players in the men’s draw, it is impossible to win a Grand Slam in the first week, but it is possible to lose it. Spending too much time on court can wear a player out with more five-set matches upcoming. A recent example of this was Alejandro Davidovich Fokina‘s run to the quarterfinals of Roland Garros. A five-set epic win over Caper Ruud in the opening week meant that the Spaniard was physically exhausted and could not mount a challenge against Alexander Zverev in the quarterfinals. If Murray wants to have a deep run at the Championships, it is imperative that he avoids dropping sets.

A Difficult Draw

Murray’s next opponent will be either Oscar Otte, who took the first two sets off Zverev in the opening round of Roland Garros, or Arthur Rinderknech. The pair must finish their match on Tuesday as it was suspended at 9-9 in the fifth set. Even though both are qualifiers, it is important that neither player be underestimated.

Should Murray get through that, then a potential match against Denis Shapovalov awaits in the third round. Shapovalov is cut from the same cloth as Basilashvili. Both like to be aggressive and hit the ball flat, which can lead to many winners as well as unforced errors. However, the key difference between the two is that Shapovalov will have more belief than the Georgian that he can beat Murray. It would be difficult seeing Murray getting through that match without dropping a set. If that is indeed the third round match, it could be a long five setter. It is important not to look too far ahead, but if Murray did get through Shapovalov, I question how much he would have left in the tank and how his body would hold up.

However far Andy Murray goes it at this year;s Wimbledon, it is just great to see the Scot back playing singles at the most prestigious tournament in the sport. Murray’s opening round win proves that he still has the skill and desire to compete at the highest level. However, a big question mark remains over how his body will cope with best-of-five set tennis.

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