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ATP Rome Masters: Preview and Draw Analysis

Action from the 2019 Rome Masters

The ATP Rome Masters will welcome 64 players to the eternal city. This is the last of the triple Masters 1000 tournaments on clay before the main event in Paris with the tournament scheduled to run from the 9th to 16th May. There will be a return to action for world #1 and defending champion Novak Djokovic who elected not to defend his title at the ATP Madrid Open last week.

2021 ATP Rome Masters Draw

Top half:  Djokovic leads stacked field featuring Thiem and Tsitsipas

Djokovic is the top seed and receives a bye in the opening round. He will renew his rivalry with Dan Evans should the British #1 make it past Taylor Fritz in the first round. Evans shocked Djokovic in Monte Carlo for just his third career win on clay, and the Serbian has found the transition to clay somewhat taxing having also lost a titanic three-set battle to Aslan Karatsev in the semifinals in Belgrade.

The second quarter could see Stefanos Tsitsipas meet Matteo Berrettini as early as the third round. The Greek will open up against Marin Cilic (2018 semifinalist) or Alexander Bublik – one of the surprise packages at the Madrid Masters. Tsitsipas has an unblemished record against Berrettini having won all four of their previous matches and is favorite to make the quarterfinal where he could face Djokovic.

Moving down, Dominic Thiem features in the third quarter. The Austrian, fresh from a sabbatical, is looking energized. At the time of writing, Thiem is playing in the semifinal in Madrid, and will certainly arrive in Rome in a buoyant mood. He could draw a familiar name in Gianluca Mager in the third round. The Italian registered a memorable win over the world #4 at the Rio Open last year, but he has never won a main draw match in two previous attempts in Rome.

In the bottom section, we will see Gael Monfils’ return to tennis. The Frenchman hasn’t played since losing in the first round of the Australian Open – a defeat that drove him to tears in his post-match press conference. Monfils is winless in seven matches at tour level and faces a stern test against Sardinia champion Lorenzo Sonego.

Still, in the bottom section, Andrey Rublev is projected to meet Thiem in the quarterfinal. However, the Russian will need to pass some speedbumps along the way. He will likely meet Jan-Lennard Struff in his first match. The German has been in great touch on clay lately and pushed Rublev at this year’s ATP Cup to three sets. Should Rublev come through unscathed, Roberto Bautista Agut is lurking in his section as a potential third-round opponent.

Projected semifinal: Tsitsipas (5) vs Thiem (4)

Bottom half: Chaotic half features Nadal, Medvedev and Zverev

The bottom half of the draw features some potentially intriguing matchups. The top section would have been a path with clear daylight for Daniil Medvedev to advance to the quarterfinal. But the Russian does not have a penchant for clay, and could be the first big-name casualty in Rome. With a bye in the opening round, Medvedev could face this year’s breakout star Aslan Karatsev or Miomir Kecmanovic in the second round.

Diego Schwartzman is defending a substantial number of points between now and the French Open. He finished runner-up in Rome and made the last four at Roland Garros last year. He has lost his opening match in the last two Masters 1000 events on clay and will have his hands full against either Felix Auger-Aliassime or Filip Krajinovic.

Schwartzman and Medvedev are on a collision course in the quarters, but there is a possibility the pair of them will be sent packing before then. The likes of Lorenzo Musetti (a wild card who had a dream debut at last year’s edition) is a name to watch out for, as is David Goffin who is a three-time quarterfinalist in Rome.

In the bottom section, Alexander Zverev could lock horns against Rafael Nadal for the second time in as many weeks. Nadal’s form heading to Paris has been questionable despite winning the Barcelona title for the umpteenth time. The Spaniard, however, has made a career of silencing his detractors who have fleeting doubts regarding his motivation.

Nadal has a treacherous path towards an unprecedented 10th title at the Rome Masters. He could start against Jannik Sinner, the talented Italian phenom, and a potential third-round meeting against either Denis Shapovalov or Casper Ruud. Should the 20-time Grand Slam winner get out of that minefield unharmed, he could meet Alexander Zverev in the last eight. It would be a repeat of their recent Madrid match where Nadal was beaten in straight sets at the same stage.

Projected semifinal: Nadal (2) vs Goffin (12)

Notable First Round Matches

Matteo Berrettini vs Nikoloz Basilashvili

Gael Monfils vs Lorenzo Sonego

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Filip Krajinovic

Hubert Hurkacz vs Lorenzo Musetti

Miomir Kecmanovic vs Aslan Karatsev

Kei Nishikori vs Fabio Fognini

Denis Shapovalov vs Casper Ruud

Main photo:
Embed from Getty Images

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