Roger Federer is out of the Qatar Open, having blown a match point in the quarterfinals, whilst top seed Dominic Thiem fell at the same stage. The tournament looks wide open as a result heading into the semifinals. But who will make Saturday’s final?
ATP Qatar Open Semifinal Predictions
Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Taylor Fritz
Head-to-head: Fritz 1-0 Basilashvili
After spending the last year in a terrible slump, Nikoloz Basilashvili has been back to something approaching his best this week, putting together a good run out of nowhere. It started with a good win over John Millman, which he backed up by beating Malek Jaziri, taking advantage of a favourable draw. Basilashvili then brought Federer’s comeback to an early end, beating the Swiss 3-6 6-1 7-5. It is the sort of win that is bound to give him the confidence he’s been desperately looking for.
Taylor Fritz, meanwhile, saved three match points against Montpellier champion David Goffin in the second round before defeating Denis Shapovalov in another tight three-set thriller to book his place in the quarterfinals. The American is a much more consistent performer than Basilashvili (at least recently) and his level rarely dips too far. Especially as his serve and forehands are weapons that he can always rely on to rack up easy points.
Basilashvili would need to maintain the level that saw him past Federer to win here. The Georgian limited the number of his unforced errors, forcing the Swiss to win points on his own and work extremely hard for every game. But although Basilashvili has pulled out more than one surprising run over the course of his career, Fritz is a tough competitor. The American is certainly the more reliable pick, but he’d do well not to underestimate Basilashvili. Nonetheless, if he is at his best, he should win.
Prediction: Fritz in 3
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Andrey Rublev vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Head-to-head: Rublev 2-2 Bautista Agut
Remarkably, Andrey Rublev is yet to step out on the court (in singles) at the ATP Qatar Open, having received a first-round bye before benefitting from two walkovers. All that rest might well have come in handy, with the Russian perhaps needing to catch a breath after a title-winning run last week in Rotterdam. He’s been keeping up his match rhythm though, recording some dominant wins in the doubles draw here alongside Australian Open semifinalist Aslan Karatsev.
On paper, this seems like a very tough matchup for Rublev. But the Russian has actually won the last two at the expense of the Spaniard, including one meeting last year. And although it is a tall order to face a player of Roberto Bautista Agut in his first match of the week, with Rublev in such good form the rest can surely only have helped him. Particularly because Bautista Agut is coming off a late-night three-set win over Thiem in the quarterfinals. That’s bound to give the edge to Rublev.
Prediction: Rublev in 3
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