After a decade of dominance by three men, things have been changing on the ATP Tour in recent years. Grigor Dimitrov, Jack Sock, John Isner, Alexander Zverev, Dominic Thiem, Karen Khachanov and Daniil Medvedev have all captured titles at Masters 1000 level. The last three ATP Finals, meanwhile, have been won by Dimitrov, Zverev and Tsitsipas. But at the Grand Slams, where the biggest prizes of all are there to be won, the ruling tetrarchy have remained unchallenged.
The last 13 Grand Slams have been won by Novak Djokovic (five), Rafael Nadal (five) and Roger Federer (three), with the last player to win a Major outside that august trio Stan Wawrinka at the US Open in 2016. But one has to go back even further to find a first-time Major champion, with no player having achieved that feat since 2014 when Marin Cilic beat Kei Nishikori in the US Open to win his first and thus far only Grand Slam title.
But could that be about to change? It certainly looks like there is a rare opportunity for a new Grand Slam champion to emerge at the 2020 US Open. Federer will be absent as he recovers from a knee surgery, whilst Nadal elected not to travel to the United States, choosing instead to remain in Europe and focus on preparing for Roland Garros. Wawrinka and Juan Martin del Potro, the US Open champion in 2009, will also be absent.
Andy Murray and Cilic, both of whom have won the US Open before, are amongst the field, but neither looks to have any realistic chance of claiming the title. Cilic is in the midst of a long, potentially terminal slump whilst Murray is still on the comeback trail after having hip-replacement surgery. The young guns, meanwhile, look hungry and have been edging closer to Grand Slam glory in recent years. Medvedev finished as runner-up in New York last season and Thiem is a three-time Major finalist.
But whilst the field at the US Open may be depleted, Djokovic remains a formidable obstacle. The Serbian is a three-time US Open champion and is yet to lose a match this season. He will also be more than familiar with the conditions at the US Open this year, having just won the Cincinnati Masters, which was relocated to Flushing Meadows due to travel restrictions imposed by the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.
He did not look entirely invincible on his title run, having struggled with a neck injury throughout the week and finding himself on the cusp of defeat in both the semifinal and final. Those two gruelling matches will also not have helped his fitness ahead of the second Major of the season. But he also seems to have forgotten how to lose and will surely be determined to take advantage of Federer and Nadal’s absence and further close the gap on his two great rivals with another Grand Slam title.
Two of Djokovic’s likely rivals for the title, Tsitsipas and Zverev, begin their US Open campaigns on Monday, whilst Medvedev and Thiem will play their first matches on Tuesday. All four will need to win and win well, to save energy for the challenges that surely lie ahead. Because it is almost certain that Djokovic will be there waiting for them there and the world #1 has long saved his best tennis for when it matters most. In short, if a new Grand Slam champion is going to be crowned this fortnight, they will have to do it the hard way.
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