Only four players remain in contention at the 2020 WTA Shenzhen Open. Ranking wise, none were expected to make it to Friday. Who will advance to the final in China?
WTA Shenzhen Semifinal Predictions
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Garbiñe Muguruza
Head to Head: Muguruza 1-0 Alexandrova
The first semifinal features a former Major champion who is trying to regain her once formidable level and a player in the midst of the best stretch of her career. Sitting at a career-high ranking of No. 34, Alexandrova is projected to jump at least one spot next Monday.
As expected, Muguruza had her hands full with the pesky Zarina Diyas in the quarters, prevailing 6-4 2-6 6-4. The Spaniard hit 13 aces, including a match-clinching dinger. I was fairly impressed with her ability to mix her usual aggressiveness with a dose of patience. She hit some defensive lobs that allowed her to recover her court position rather than chase a hero-shot from anywhere. Conchita Martínez’s tactical input will help Muguruza a ton.
Afterward, Alexandrova upended local favorite Qiang Wang 3-6 6-4 6-3, overcoming a 2-0 deficit in the second. Once her game started clicking, the Russian never looked back.
According to Tennis Abstract’s ELO Ratings, Alexandrova (1825.3) is currently stronger than Muguruza (1784.1) on hard. However, I think the Spaniard will handle Alexandrova’s flat game from the baseline.
Prediction: Muguruza in 3
Elena Rybakina vs Kristyna Pliskova
Head to Head: first meeting
Not counting Simona Halep’s retirement when trailing 5-4 in Wuhan, Rybakina notched the best win of her career against Elise Mertens (6-4 4-6 6-2). Two stats stand out from this performance. The 20-year-old seized six out of seven break point opportunities and she won a higher percentage of points with her second serve (64.5%) than with her first (59.6%).
In order to reach her third tour-level final, Rybakina will need to defeat Pliskova, a tall order this week. The Czech lefty continued her tour de force with her 6-4 6-4 victory over Kateryna Bondarenko. In line with her previous matches, Pliskova served fantastically, hitting 16 aces and conceding just one break point.
Rybakina is certainly a potential star and will make noise throughout the season, but Pliskova is serving too well at the moment. I give the 27-year-old a slim edge.
Prediction: Pliskova in 3
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