As the penultimate ATP Masters 1000 on the calendar heads towards its conclusion, only eight men remain in with a chance to take the Shanghai Masters crown and the biggest pay cheque yet at a Masters 1000 tournament. But who will book their place in the semifinals in Shanghai?
ATP Shanghai Masters Quarterfinals Predictions
Daniil Medvedev vs Fabio Fognini
Head-to-head: Medvedev 1-1 Fognini
Daniil Medvedev rode his luck a few times in his third round match against Canadian Vasek Pospisil, but managed to clinch a hard-fought 7-6 7-5 victory. That gave him an ATP tour-leading 56th win of the season. In fact, the Russian has gone 26-3 on hard courts since the beginning of July – a run that includes five straight finals. The World #4 saved five set points against the Canadian qualifier in that closely contested first set before winning it to maintain his record of not having dropped a set since the US Open.
Medvedev will next face the resurgent Italian Fabio Fognini, who is looking to keep his increasingly slim London hopes alive this week. The reigning Monte Carlo champion has been in good form so far during the Asian swing after losing in the first round in New York. Fognini reached the last eight in Beijing where he lost to Karen Khachanov, but he managed to avenge that defeat on Thursday, comfortably beating the Russian 6-3 7-5 to reach the Shanghai Masters quarterfinals for the first time.
Medvedev, despite his excellent season, looked vulnerable against Pospisil. The Canadian ultimately lacked the composure and confidence to take his chances, but Fognini should have no such problems. The Italian can hit winners from anywhere in the court and his forehand and backhand are both rock-solid when he is engaged and playing his best tennis, as he has done so far this week. If Medvedev is feeling the effects of playing such a heavy schedule in the last three months, he could find himself in trouble here.
Prediction: Fognini in 3
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Novak Djokovic vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Head-to-head: Djokovic 1-1 Tsitsipas
World #1 Novak Djokovic produced a returning masterclass to thwart the big serve of American John Isner and ease his way into the quarterfinals of the Shanghai Masters. Djokovic, who last week won the title at the Japan Open without dropping a set, is looking to close the gap to Rafael Nadal in the race to finish as year-end #1. The Spaniard’s lead in the Race to London currently stands at 1,280 points, so a deep run in Shanghai, where he is defending champion, is a must for the Serb.
The top seed will play Stefanos Tsitsipas in the last eight. The Greek is next in line to qualify for the ATP Finals next month, but found himself embroiled in a tough three-setter against Hubert Hurkacz. He eventually sealed victory in a deciding tiebreak, but will likely have expended a great deal of energy in beating the Pole. That may cause him real problems against Djokovic, who has looked mighty sharp so far in Asia. This will be his first real test of the Asian swing, but expect him to pass it with flying colours.
Prediction: Djokovic in 2
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Dominic Thiem vs Matteo Berrettini
Head-to-head: Thiem 1-0 Berrettini
Dominic Thiem has flown under the radar this week, but he will certainly have the spotlight shining on him should he get past Matteo Berrettini and into the semifinals for the first time. Few expected much of the Austrian, who has historically struggled during the Asian swing and lost to Matthew Ebden in the first round in Shanghai in 2018. But after battling illness over the summer in North America, he re-affirmed his status as a growing force on the hard courts by winning the China Open last week.
And he has continued that fine form so far in Shanghai, beating Pablo Carreno Busta and Nikoloz Basilashvili without dropping a set. But he may find Berrettini a sterner test. The Italian has enjoyed a superb season, highlighted by a thrilling run to the last four in Flushing Meadows. He looked to be suffering from a post-US Open hangover as he lost early in St. Petersburg and Beijing, but has rediscovered his winning touch this week. The courts are playing quickly in Shanghai and that should favour the aggressive first-strike tennis of Berrettini.
Prediction: Berrettini in 3
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Roger Federer vs Alexander Zverev
Head-to-head: Federer 3-3 Zverev
After sweeping past Albert Ramos Vinolas in his opener, two-time former champion Roger Federer received a real examination at the hands of David Goffin in the last 16. The Swiss had to save five set points in the opening set, before completing a 7-6 6-4 win to extend his head-to-head advantage over the Belgian to 10-1. Awaiting him in the last eight is Alexander Zverev, who has enjoyed some real success against Federer in the past and won their last match at the 2018 ATP Finals in straight-sets.
Zverev appeared to be coasting through against Andrey Rublev in the third round match up 6-0 3-0, only, and not for the first time, to lose his way. He did eventually manage to halt the Russian’s charge and secure a 6-0 7-6 win to book his place in the quarterfinals. But Zverev’s struggles with his focus are surely good news for Federer, who looks to have recovered from the injuries that derailed his US Open challenge. The second seed has clearly been enjoying the quick conditions in Shanghai and should have the edge in this one.
Prediction: Federer in 3
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