Despite a promising start to the year, Mercedes are paying the price for ineffective updates to the W16. After spending several rounds trying to make something of their new suspension, the Silver Arrows reverted to their old specification in Hungary.
This decision, albeit slightly late, proved correct. George Russell finished an impressive third, with the W16 second only to the MCL39 on race day at the Hungaroring.
With that said, the rest of 2025 could be more challenging than Mercedes would have liked.
Mercedes fail to make up lost ground
Alongside this year’s initial skirmishes between Verstappen and the McLaren pairing, there was another driver to be reckoned with at the start of 2025.
George Russell, despite not having the fastest machinery, always found a way to put himself at the front.
The British driver secured four podiums and six consecutive top five finishes in the opening six races of the year.
He later secured a surprise victory in Canada, which at the time kept him within twenty points of Verstappen and forty of Lando Norris.
Of course, the Mercedes driver was not a Championship contender at this stage.
Still, having won a race in the second race with Mercedes’ new updates, Russell seemed well-placed to capitalise on any opportunities.
In the aftermath of the Canadian GP, however, it was warned that Russell’s victory could be the consequence of the Gilles Villeneuve’s characteristics – rather than newly discovered performances in the W16.
Since then, sceptics of the 27-year-old’s victory have been proven correct.
The Silver Arrows fell off a cliff after Canada, with Kimi Antonelli scoring just one point since.
Speaking after last weekend’s Hungarian GP, Toto Wolff admitted the team’s mid-season updates were counter-productive:
“I think that we tried to solve a problem with an Imola upgrade, with a mechanical upgrade.
“That may have not solved an issue, but it made something – let something else creep into the car – and that was an instability that basically took all confidence from the drivers.
“And it took us a few races to figure that out.
“Obviously, also misled a little bit by the Montreal win, we think maybe that’s not so bad.
“We came to the conclusion it needs to go off, it went off and the car is back to solid form.”
Driver uncertainty looms
Mercedes will obviously be disappointed that their momentum in 2025 dissipated before the summer break.
Their efforts to recover from previous years of doomed concepts and misguided development trajectories were ultimately in vain.
Crucially, arguably of bigger consequence for Toto Wolff’s team is their driver situation.
After spending weeks monitoring Max Verstappen’s availability, the Brackley-based operation were unable to secure his signature.
In theory, this should open the door for Russell to sign an extension with the team without any issues.
However, Russell has highlighted that negotiations will be more complicated than some may suspect.
Having seen Toto Wolff, who is also his manager, pursue Verstappen will have changed the British driver’s perspective about his position.
Russell has signalled that contract length will be essential in any negotiations. Considering that Verstappen could become available again next year, this is an understandable priority to set.
For Mercedes, who clearly undermined Russell’s position, finalising their 2026 line-up could trickier than anticipated.
Main photo: via Mercedes media gallery
