For all the focus on Red Bull’s driver line-up, there are plenty of question marks surrounding the VCARB duo. For different reasons, Lawson’s early demotion could have significant implications moving forward.
Like any rookie, Hadjar must prove himself as being F1-calibre over the 24-round season. Having recovered strongly from his Australia disappointment in Shanghai, the Frenchman is already showing positive signs.
Still, he must perform consistently to ensure Red Bull retain him beyond 2025.
On the opposite side of the garage, Liam Lawson must ensure his demotion does not trigger a bigger decline.
Should the Kiwi fail to re-assert himself at Faenza, Red Bull won’t hesitate to replace him with one of their most highly rated juniors.
Why Lawson must rebound at VCARB
It would be hyperbolic to suggest that Lawson’s career is in immediate jeopardy after his Red Bull demotion.
Several drivers, from Pierre Gasly to Alex Albon, have built respectable careers for themselves since leaving the Milton Keynes squad.
Even Sergio Perez’s market value is on the rise, with Lawson’s performances prompting a re-evaluation of the Mexican driver’s efforts last year.
In any case, Lawson must establish himself as the lead driver at VCARB.
Although he doesn’t even have a full F1 season under his belt, the Kiwi is still VCARB’s more experienced driver.
Even with the abrupt nature of his move to the b-team, Red Bull will expect the 23-year-old to outperform teammate Isack Hadjar.
Should he fail to accomplish this on a regular basis, Lawson will be vulnerable looking ahead to 2026.
His position will be especially precarious if Tsunoda manages to find some pace in the RB21 – which will paint a less sympathetic picture of his two race weekends at Red Bull.
Of course, it is also true that, should Tsunoda encounter significant difficulty, Lawson’s own results will be looked upon more favourably.
Still, it is essential for the 23-year-old to restore his reputation after a nightmare start to 2025.
Ironically, Lawson could serve a similar function to what Yuki Tsunoda did from 2023-25.
Despite his poor form at Red Bull, he is still fast enough for Red Bull to use as a reference against other drivers – including Hadjar.
In the same way that Tsunoda was constantly tasked with outperforming new teammates, Lawson must get the better of Hadjar.
If not, particularly since his Red Bull swap, his market value could drop sharply.
Hadjar showing promise, Lindblad waiting in the wings
Heading into this year, Hadjar was one of the rookies with relatively little hype surrounding his debut.
Within just two race weekends, however, his pace relative to Tsunoda has impressed the paddock.
The 20-year-old clearly has potential, which he can further demonstrate against his new teammate.
When Lawson replaced Ricciardo after the Singapore GP, Christian Horner did not set him the target of outperforming Tsunoda.
Instead, staying within a few tenths of his more experienced teammate was deemed a success for the #30 car. The dynamics will likely be similar at VCARB.
As the younger less experienced driver, Hadjar can strengthen his position just by staying within a respectable distance of Lawson.
Part of the reason why both drivers perform well this year is that Red Bull are investing heavily in their next prodigy.
Arvid Lindblad, currently competing in Formula 2, is rated extremely highly by Helmut Marko.
Lindblad is seen as the most exciting prospect within the Red Bull ranks. The team have already arranged several TPC tests for the 17-year-old, to give him mileage in F1 machinery.
He is also expected to complete several FP1 sessions this year, such is Red Bull’s eagerness to ramp up his F1 mileage.
Looking ahead to 2026, it seems probable that Lindblad could join VCARB.
Depending on Tsunoda’s efforts at Red Bull, this could put both Hadjar and Lawson on the ejector seat over the coming rounds.
